The growth of the Brazilian population and the formation of new families should generate a demand for an additional 30.7 million new households by 2030.
This is what a study by economist Robson Gonçalves, a professor at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV) at the request of the Brazilian Association of Real Estate Developers (Abrainc), shows. The survey makes projections based on data from the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD), from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
Of these 30.7 million homes needed to meet the demand that will arise from demographic growth in the next decade, 14.4 million (46.9%) will be concentrated in the population with an average income, between three and ten minimum wages.
The second largest demand – 13.0 million (42.3%) – will come from the low-income population, who receive up to three minimum wages. The lowest demand – 3.3 million (10.7%) – will come from the richest social sector, with families earning more than 10 minimum wages.
The study published by Abrainc also shows that the housing deficit in Brazil closed 2019 at 7.797 million homes. The amount fell 1.5% compared to the most recent Abrainc study, of 2017, when it was 7.918 million.
The fall was driven by the restricted deficit, which considers the need for housing due to situations of precarious housing, family cohabitation and excessive density. Between 2017 and 2019, the restricted deficit decreased by 4%, to 4.452 million cases.
On the other hand, there was an increase of 2.0% in the housing deficit caused by the excessive weight of rent in the families’ budget, reaching 3.345 million cases.
“The main change in the deficit profile refers to the relative advance of the excessive burden with rent and the decline in cohabitation and precariousness”, highlights the study.
The region that suffers most from the housing deficit in the country is the Southeast, where there is a shortage of 3.144 million homes, or 40% of the total. Following are Northeast (29%), South (12%), North (11%) and Midwest (8%).