Economists see a fall of 5.04% of GDP this year and inflation of 2.05%

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SÃO PAULO – The Brazilian economy should register a fall of 5.04% in 2020, according to financial market estimates, which represents a slight improvement in relation to the previous expectation of contraction of 5.05%. The data are from the Focus report, released by the Central Bank on Monday morning (28).

For 2021, after the strong impacts of the coronavirus pandemic, the estimate is that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow 3.50%, with no changes in relation to the last survey.

Amid concerns about rising food prices, the economists consulted by the BC raised the projection for inflation measured by the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) from 1.99% to 2.05% this year. The estimate for 2021 remained at 3.01%.

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For the other indicators, there were no changes in the estimates of this week’s survey.

According to Focus, the Selic rate should end 2020 at the current level, 2.00% per year, and rise to 2.50%, in December 2021.

In exchange, the dollar should end the year quoted at R $ 5.25, and the next, at R $ 5.00.

Top 5

Among the economists consulted by the monetary authority who are most correct in forecasting, gathered in the group “Top 5 medium term”, the projections for inflation and exchange rate in 2020 were modified.

Now, the group expects inflation to rise to 2.12% this year (from 2.05% last week), ending 2021 at 3.20%.

For the exchange rate, the estimates increased, from R $ 5.30 to R $ 5.40 in 2020, and remained at R $ 5.10, in December 2021.

Regarding expectations for the basic interest rate, these remained at 2.00% for the end of this and next year.

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