The expectation of a rise in inflation in 2020 has grown again, as projected by economists in the financial market. THE Focus Market Report, released on Monday (28) by the Central Bank, showed that the median for the IPCA this year was up from 1.99% to 2.05%. This is the first time since April that the inflation forecast is above 2%. So, what should investors consider when choosing their investments?
João Paulo Teixeira, partner at Unnião Investimentos, explains how it is possible to have profitability with some investments in periods of high inflation, considering some aspects such as asset class and diversification.
For those who invest in actions, for example, Teixeira states that some sectors of the economy have an increase in investor demand at times of high inflation, such as utility companies sanitation, highways e electricity.
“These companies have contracts that allow the correction of the cost of their service for inflation”, says the partner of Unnião.
Still according to the report from BC, the projection for the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), an indicator that measures inflation in the country, in 2021 remained at 3.01%. The IPCA estimates in 2022 and 2023 remained at 3.50% and 3.25%, respectively.
On Tuesday (22), the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) recognized that consumer inflation “should rise in the short term”, due to the “temporary increase in food prices” and the “partial normalization of prices some services ”. The information appears in the minutes of the last meeting of the collegiate, on Wednesday (16), when Brazil’s basic interest rate, the Selic, was maintained at 2% per year.
Check out some tips that the partner of Unnião Investimentos suggests to obtain profitability or protect money during high inflation.
One of the best ways is to invest in Tesouro HICP + (NTN-B). These bonds pay a fixed rate plus inflation for the period, as measured by the IPCA, which is the main inflation index in the country. The rates of these bonds vary according to their maturity.
Private debt security, are exempt from income tax for individual investors and usually yield more than federal government bonds. However, it is necessary to be aware of the risks and guarantees involved in the operation.
Real estate funds
Real Estate Investment Funds (FII) they are an option that can be very advantageous for the investor, since they are funds that buy real estate or real estate debt securities and profit from their rents. In addition, interest rates are usually adjusted for inflation. The FII are traded on quotas at B3 and have, for the most part, rents adjusted by the IGP-M and debt securities indexed to inflation.
THE gold attracts investors from all over the world in times of uncertainty and crisis. Unlike inflation-linked bonds, gold may not function as a strong protection against inflation, as many other variables can influence its price.
Some sectors of the economy have an increased demand from investors in times of inflation, such as the shares of companies that provide sanitation, highways and electricity services. These companies have contracts that allow the correction of the cost of their service for inflation. Companies that manage property also have an advantage in the inflation scenario, as their rental contracts are adjusted for inflation.