Great chance that a number of counties will be “red” – VG

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Rogaland, here represented by Vågen in Stavanger, is among the counties most likely to get an infection of more than 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, according to a report from FHI. Photo: Fredrik Hagen / NTB

All counties in Norway have more than a 50 percent chance of reaching the limit for the “red” infection situation, according to a new modeling from the National Institute of Public Health (NIPH).

The probability of getting over 20 cases of infection per 100,000 inhabitants is growing in all counties, FHI states in its latest «National Corona Report» from 21 September, which models future infection development in Norway.

The next day, the report explaining the development was presented. It shows that:

  • All counties in Norway have over a 50 percent chance of getting over 20 new cases of infection per 100,000 inhabitants over the next two weeks (from 21 September). This is the limit set by FHI when areas abroad become “red” and the quarantine obligation comes into force.
  • It is highest in Agder (76 per cent), Viken (76 per cent), Rogaland (76 per cent), Oslo (76 per cent) and Vestfold and Telemark (74 per cent). The latest weekly report from FHI showed that Oslo, Viken and Vestland were “red” in weeks 37-38.

Fluctuations in the R-number

The new report also presents new calculations of how the R-number has developed in recent months. FHI estimates that it fell below 1 when the strict measures were introduced in mid-March. Thereafter, it remained stable at around 0.5 until the end of April, before increasing to 1 at the beginning of May. In the following period, it fluctuated around the number 1 for a period, writes FHI.

The calculations that came in the latest report, which applies from 1 September, show that the R-number may have been 1.22.

FHI uses several mathematical models to assess the number, which is calculated on the basis of the number of hospital admissions and new cases of infection. Thus, there will be a delay

Top at the turn of the year

In the new report, FHI also estimates that the peak of infection will be reached by the end of the year if the infection situation remains as it is today.

In addition, the probability that more than 500 patients will need respiratory treatment at the peak of infection is estimated to be 40 percent. (And 30 percent for more than 1,000). This also presupposes that the infection situation remains as it is today.

– These predictions are much more serious than before, the report states.

Movements

FHI relies, among other things, on teledata from Telenor, which shows how Norwegians move inland, when they make forecasts for how the infection will be in the future.

The latest report shows that Norwegians’ movements between municipalities are stable, and “remain at the same high level as before the summer”.

– There are no signs of a reduction in the level of movement as a result of increased use of home office and remote work, writes FHI.

Infection development

The table below shows how FHI assesses the probability that different counties will get 20 cases of infection per 100,000 inhabitants during the current two-year period:

Agder: 0.76

Inland: 0.71

Møre og Romsdal: 0.65

Nordland: 0.64

Oslo: 0.76

Rogaland: 0.79

Troms and Finnmark: 0.61

Trøndelag: 0.68

Vestfold and Telemark: 0.74

Vestland: 0.67

Bay: 0.76

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