Ibovespa Futuro has a slight increase in European data and expectations of a larger primary deficit; future dollar goes to R $ 5.51



SÃO PAULO – Ibovespa Futuro follows the day in a better mood in international markets and rises this Wednesday (23), still below the level of 98 thousand points, pulled mainly by good economic data in the Eurozone.

In Brazil, the market also follows the information that the Ministry of Economy raised the primary deficit expectation to R $ 861 billion in 2020, according to a report released last night, which represents an increase in relation to the deficit of R $ 787 , 45 billion expected for public accounts in the end of July report.

Also in the domestic scenario, the expectation of creating a tax on digital transactions is growing, after President Jair Bolsonaro gave the green light to the idea. According to Folha de S. Paulo, the government will now seek the support of the centão to present the proposal to Congress. The expectation is to raise R $ 120 billion per year with the new tax, along the lines of the extinct CPMF.

At 09h10 (Brasília time), the future index for October was up 0.36%, at 97,350 points, while the future dollar registered a rise of 0.87%, to R $ 5.518.

In the future interest market, the DI for January 2022 rises three basis points at 2.94%, the DI for January 2023 advances five basis points at 4.39%, while the DI for January 2025 is up seven basis points at 6.36%.

Abroad, European economic activity showed slower growth in September, with the Purchasing Manager (PMI) index at 50.1, down from 51.9 in August. Even so, readings above 50 indicate expansion of activity.

Prior to that, Spain revised its Gross Domestic Product forecast for a 17.8% drop in the second quarter compared to the previous period, less severe than the previous 18.5% drop estimate.


The Broad National Consumer Price Index – Base 15 (IPCA-15) rose 0.45% in September in the monthly comparison, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) this Wednesday (23).

The economists’ expectation, according to the Bloomberg consensus, was that inflation measured by the IPCA-15 would increase by 0.39% in September in the monthly comparison, after accelerating by 0.23% in the previous measurement. In the annual comparison, inflation was projected to increase by 2.6%, compared to 2.28% in the previous reading.

FGV reveals the September Consumer Survey.

The United States ‘Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) from the United States is also expected today, which will update the prospects for an upturn in the economy. The Europe indicator was announced this morning.

In addition, another speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected today at the Congressional Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis.

This Wednesday marks the second day of the biggest real estate fund event in the country, between 22 and 24 September. Online and free of charge, the FII Summit – Real Estate Funds Forum, held by the InfoMoney, brings together executives from some of the largest construction companies and developers in the country, as well as economists, analysts and FII managers, who will discuss the trends of this market in its various segments (commercial, hotel, logistics and residential).

To participate in the FII Summit, which has the support of XP Investimentos, register for free on the event website. Check the complete schedule by clicking here.

Deficit and new tax

The Ministry of Economy raised the primary deficit expectation in 2020 to R $ 861 billion, according to a report released last night, which represents an increase in relation to the R $ 787.45 billion deficit expected for public accounts in the end of July.

For this year, the government was authorized to record in its accounts a primary deficit of up to R $ 124.1 billion, according to G1. The new calculation considers a retraction of 4.7% for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year, equal to the last estimate released by the Ministry of Economy.

The forecast for revenue in 2020 worsened R $ 9.725 billion, rising to R $ 1.446 trillion in the case of gross revenue and R $ 1.185 trillion for net revenue.

The worsening is due to changes in tax legislation to combat covid-19, the result of the collection between June and August 2020 and the revision of the impact estimates of the postponement in the collection of taxes, according to O Estado de S. Paulo. The forecast for expenses increased R $ 63.6 billion in relation to the projected in the third quarter, to R $ 2.046 trillion.

Another highlight of the national news is the information that the proposal for a tax on digital transactions prepared by the team of Economy Minister Paulo Guedes received the green light from President Jair Bolsonaro. According to Folha de S.Paulo, now the government will seek the support of the centão to present the proposal to Congress. The expectation is to raise R $ 120 billion per year with the new tax, along the lines of the extinct CPMF.

The funds will pay the payroll tax exemption. The benefit would end this year, but was extended by Congress to the end of 2021. The proposal is expected to be presented by government leaders this week, according to the State of São Paulo.


Also noteworthy is the information that President Jair Bolsonaro and his children made cash donations to fund their election campaigns from 2008 to 2014, according to Folha de S.Paulo.

In total, R $ 100 thousand were injected, which represents values ​​of R $ 163 thousand, adjusted for inflation. Although in-kind transactions do not constitute a crime, they can aim to make it difficult to trace the origin of securities, according to the publication.

Still on the Bolsonaro family, yesterday Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro (PSL-SP) gave a deposition of more than six hours to the Federal Police in the investigation that investigates the financing and organization of anti-democratic acts.

In addition, foreign exchange flow data showed an unprecedented outflow of foreign resources, according to O Globo. In the first eight months of the year, US $ 15.2 billion left the country, the highest volume since the beginning of the historical series, in 1982. In addition, foreign investors withdrew R $ 87.3 billion from the Brazilian stock exchange from January to 17 September 2020.

This is almost double that recorded in the whole of last year, when R $ 44.5 billion came out. It is the biggest departure from the B3 series, which began in 2008. In addition to the global crisis and uncertainties about fiscal adjustment in Brazil, the advance of fires and deforestation may further aggravate the situation, according to the newspaper.

Corporate Radar

In the corporate news, the highlight is the announcement of the combination of the businesses of Localiza and Unidas, through a share exchange agreement. Under the agreement, announced last night, Unidas’ shareholders will receive 0.44682380 common share issued by Localiza to replace each 1 common share issued by Unidas held by them. As a result, Localiza’s shareholders would jointly hold 76.85% of the combined company’s total and voting capital, and the then Unidas shareholders would jointly hold 23.14%.

In addition, investment bank BR Partners and logistics company Hidrovias do Brasil will set the price per share in their initial public offerings today. Petrobras announced a 4% increase in gasoline sold to refineries, while Cemig and Weg announced the payment of dividends to shareholders.

Itaúsa, a Brazilian investment holding company that has companies such as Itaú Unibanco, Duratex, Alpargatas and NTS in its portfolio, will hold on September 23, from 10 am to 12 pm, Panorama Itaúsa 2020, a free digital event that will discuss the company’s strategies and investee companies. On the date, the holding will also promote a discussion on the current economic scenario and business prospects.

The event will be attended by executives Alfredo Setubal, president of Itaúsa, Candido Bracher, executive president of Itaú Unibanco, Roberto Funari, president of Alpargatas, and Antonio Joaquim de Oliveira, president of Duratex. The event will also count on the participation of Mário Mesquita, chief economist at Itaú Unibanco, who will address perspectives for the economy and investments in Brazil. Registration is open to the general public and to register, simply access the website panorama.itausa.com.br [panorama.itausa.com.br].

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