Ibovespa Futuro has slight losses with investors aware of fiscal risk and external scenario

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SÃO PAULO – Ibovespa Futuro opens between losses and gains on Tuesday (22) with investors still worried about the macroeconomic scenario, even in a more peaceful session after heavy losses the day before. International investors reflect the initial notes by the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, that the American central bank will support the country’s economy for as long as necessary. He will speak today on the Financial Services Committee of the US House of Representatives, the first of three days of testimony to Congress this week.

In Brazil, investors reflect the disclosure of the minutes of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) this morning. In the document, Copom reiterated that, due to prudential and financial stability issues, the remaining space for cutting interest rates, if any, should be small.

According to an analysis by XP Macro, Copom’s minutes were neutral, largely repeating the previous communication. “In paragraph 16 the Committee eliminated the part where it discussed the limitation of forward guidance (FG) in emerging markets, reinforcing confidence in the mechanism ”, stressed the broker’s analysts. For XP, the focus from now on will be the risk of changing the tax regime.

The market will also pay attention to President Jair Bolsonaro’s speech at the 75th edition of the United Nations General Assembly (UN), which will be shown on video.

At 9:05 am (Brasília time) the Ibovespa futures contract for October had a slight fall of 0.29%, at 96,675 points.

The future dollar for October is up 0.22% to R $ 5.428.

In the future interest market, the DI for January 2022 falls three basis points at 2.94%, the DI for January 2023 loses two basis points at 4.37%, the DI for January 2025 falls three points- 6.29% and the DI for January 2027 varies negatively by two basis points to 7.27%.

Also in the domestic scenario, it was reported that the reinforcement for Renda Brasil may come from cuts in the public sector. According to the State of S.Paulo, President Jair Bolsonaro has been advised by his team to review server costs or make the program conditional on the approval of new initiatives. Among them would be the creation of a new tax.

Looking abroad

The market continues to follow the external scenario today, which yesterday brought a strong risk aversion movement, taking the Ibovespa to the lowest level since the beginning of July. After the revelation that some of the world’s largest banks would be involved in suspicious transactions involving $ 2 trillion, analysts estimate that inspection over the sector is likely to increase in the near term.

However, according to the State of S.Paulo, there should not be a new round of regulatory tightening. In addition, experts estimate that Brazil should feel the effect via the market, that is, the effect on stock prices, only due to greater risk aversion. This is because Brazilian legislation is already more rigid.

Another issue on the international radar is the advancement of the coronavirus in Europe, where 300,000 cases were registered in the last week. The second wave of contamination in France, Spain, Germany and the United Kingdom could take the region back to lockdown, indicating that the continent is experiencing the most delicate phase of the epidemic since mid-May.

President’s speech

Investors will also pay attention today to President Jair Bolsonaro’s speech at the 75th edition of the United Nations General Assembly (UN), which will be shown on video. According to G1, there is an expectation that it will deal with the environmental issue, since the country is facing international criticism for the increase in fires in the Amazon and the Pantanal.

On the eve, Bolsonaro celebrated the expansion of the sugar quota that Brazil may export to the United States. However, according to Folha de S.Paulo, the quota increase was expected since April.

The sugar and alcohol sector did not celebrate the measure. In a note, the Sugarcane Industry Union (Única) stated that the measure has been customary and does not represent “any structural advance for greater access for Brazilian sugar to that country”, according to the State of S.Paulo.

In the national news, the information that Brazil is one of the countries that most feel Covid’s inflation also draws attention. According to Folha de S.Paulo, a study by Argentine economist Alberto Cavallo, a professor at Harvard University’s business school, compared inflation caused by the health crisis with the variation captured by consumer price indices.

Among 18 countries analyzed, Brazil showed the greatest disparity between Covid inflation and the IPCA. Brazil appears at the top of the list because it presented a combination between a strong rise in food prices (9% per year in May) and a drop in transport costs (2.5%).

Corporate Radar

In the corporate news, one of the highlights was Totvs ‘statement that Linx’s special independent committee has been working to delay, or even prevent, the analysis of Totvs’ proposal to unite companies, with the objective of favoring the proposal made by Stone. In addition, Ultrapar Participações and Cosan confirmed that they are disputing the purchase of the Presidente Getúlio Vargas Refinery from Petrobras, in Paraná.

Another highlight is the news that Petrobras should postpone the offer of the 37.5% still held by the oil company in BR Distribuidora until there is an improvement in the conditions of the capital market, according to Valor Econômico. At the same time, B2W approved a capital increase of R $ 4 billion, while B3 announced payment of dividends.

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