Ibovespa Futuro rises with indicators and recovery of recent losses; dollar advances

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SAO PAULO – Ibovespa Futuro is slightly up on Wednesday (30), detached from the performance of international stock exchanges after the virulent debate between candidates for the presidency of the United States, Donald Trump, of the Republican Party, and Joe Biden, of the Democratic Party.

While Trump interrupted his opponent several times, Biden called him a “clown” and told him to shut up. With such high spirits, there is fear that the election results will be contested. Trump again suggested that postal votes could be fraudulent and Biden accused him of trying to scare voters by convincing them not to vote.

Over here, the unemployment rate reached 13.8% in the quarter from May to July 2020 and was the highest in the historical series started in 2012, showed the National Survey by Continuous Household Sample (Pnad Continua) of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The unemployment rate was expected to reach 13.7%, according to the Bloomberg consensus.

In the US, 749 thousand jobs were created in the private sector in September, showed the ADP Employment Report. The number came above the median of economists’ projections compiled in the Bloomberg consensus, which pointed to 649,000 new jobs.

The US also released the second quarter’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which contracted by 31.4% in annualized terms, the Commerce Department’s third estimate showed. According to the Bloomberg consensus, the median expectation of economists for the data was a drop of 31.7% in GDP.

At 09h40 (Brasília time), the future index for October was up 0.86%, to 94,265 points.

Meanwhile, the commercial dollar advances 0.41% to R $ 5.663 in the purchase and to R $ 5.664 in the sale. The future dollar with the same maturity month registered slight gains of 0.09%, to R $ 5.641.

In the future interest market, the DI for January 2022 operates stable at 3.12%, the DI for January 2023 falls by a base point of 4.58%, the DI for January 2025 falls by three basis points at 6.54% and the DI for January 2027 recorded a negative variation of three basis points at 7.52%.

Among international indicators, industrial activity in China in September calculated by the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.5 points, above analysts’ expectations, and higher than the 51.0 points index seen in August. Readings above 50 points indicate expansion from the previous month.

Regarding the coronavirus, the news that Regeneron’s REGN-COV2 remedy reduces the viral levels and improves the symptoms of outpatients. In the commodities market, iron ore futures contracts traded on the Dalian exchange closed up 5%, quoted at 809,000 yuan, equivalent today to $ 118.72.

In Brazil, the market is following the government’s next steps in terms of financing the Citizen Income program. After the damage caused by the announcement that the program will use funds from Fundeb and from precatorios, the government held an emergency meeting yesterday afternoon and will be able to review the sources of funds, according to the Value. However, other government sources said the original proposal would be maintained.

In addition, a session of Congress is scheduled for today, which will analyze President Jair Bolsonaro’s veto on the payroll tax exemption. However, according to the Estadão, the government must act to empty the meeting and postpone the analysis of the proposal, in an attempt to avoid yet another defeat.

Citizen Income

The government’s steps in relation to tax reform and Citizen Income remain the focus of the market. After the proposal to create the social program Renda Cidadã has been poorly received, the government discusses the possibility of a setback.

According to the Economic value, some government officials consider changing the program’s funding sources. According to the newspaper, this was discussed yesterday by President Jair Bolsonaro, Economy Minister Paulo Guedes and other ministers at an emergency meeting.

The Citizen Income proposal provides for the use of precatory resources. As a result, around 1 million court payments can be delayed annually, on average, according to Folha de S.Paulo. In addition to the resources of the precatories, the program will be financed with money from the fund for basic education (Fundeb).

At the same time, other sources said the proposal was maintained. Senator Márcio Bittar (MDB-AC), rapporteur for Renda Cidadã, told the CNN Brasil that the text will be presented today, without changes in the paying source.

According to the Value, the leaders in the Senate, Fernando Bezerra (MDB-PE), and in the Chamber, Ricardo Barros (PP-PR), also promised that the proposal will still stand and will be in the report to be presented in the coming days.

In addition, a session of Congress is scheduled for today, which will analyze President Jair Bolsonaro’s veto on the payroll tax exemption. According to Senate Agency, Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (DEM-AP) intends to call the session at 10 am.

However, according to Estadão, the government must act to empty the meeting and postpone the analysis of the proposal, in an attempt to avoid yet another defeat. The strategy will depend on an articulation with the Chamber of Deputies, where the vote begins. The government needs to avoid having 257 votes to overturn the veto in the House.

The exemption can guarantee the benefit to 17 sectors of the economy in 2021. If the veto is maintained, the exemption ends in December. Yesterday, leaders would meet to discuss the session’s agenda, but the meeting was canceled. Therefore, the expectation is that the proposal will hardly be voted on today.

In addition, the proposal by Economy Minister Paulo Guedes to create a payment tax along the lines of the former CPMF again attracted criticism from the Mayor, Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ). “Why did Paulo Guedes forbid the tax reform debate?” Asked Maia, on his Twitter profile.

The mayor made the statement a day after the government gave up sending the second phase of the tax reform proposal. The payment tax is not a consensus among party leaders.

Credit

The Chamber of Deputies yesterday approved the Provisional Measure that releases a credit of R $ 20 billion to the BNDES fund to grant credit to micro and small companies. According to Agência Brasil, the matter goes to the Senate and needs to be voted on until tomorrow (1st) so as not to lose its validity. The text was approved as it was edited by the government in June, without changes.

Companies with gross revenue between R $ 360 thousand and R $ 300 million will benefit in 2019. According to Folha, the investment will be directed to the Investment Guarantee Fund (FGI), managed by BNDES and which is part of the Emergency Access Program a Credit created by the Ministry of Economy in June. The program was instituted through the MP that allowed the release of credit through machines up to R $ 50 thousand with interest of up to 6% per year.

In Brazil, another highlight is the news that Minister Celso de Mello decided to withdraw from the virtual plenary session of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) the appeal that discusses whether President Jair Bolsonaro may or may not give written testimony in the alleged investigation. attempted political interference in the Federal Police, according to G1.

With the decision of the rapporteur, the issue returns to the conventional plenary of the Supreme Court – the date of the trial has not yet been defined. Due to the pandemic, ministers have been meeting by videoconference, but can read the votes, debate and argue during the session. The case had been referred to the virtual collegiate body last week by Minister Marco Aurélio Mello, who replaced the dean during medical leave ended last Thursday, 24.

In addition, the market must follow the speech of President Jair Bolsonaro, who is due to speak today at the United Nations (UN) Biodiversity Summit, through a video, according to CNN. In a speech considered calm by the president’s interlocutors, Bolsonaro should defend the Amazon.

Yesterday, in the first presidential debate of the 2020 election in the United States, Democratic candidate Joe Biden threatened Brazil with “significant economic consequences if he does not take care of the Amazon”. Biden said he would get several nations to give Brazil $ 20 billion to end deforestation in the Amazon and, if Brazil fails, then there would be “significant economic consequences”, according to Valor Econômico.

Corporate Radar

On the corporate front, the market today follows the judgment of the lawsuit on the sale of Petrobras refineries without bidding or endorsement by the National Congress.

In addition to Petrobras, the sanitation sector will have a busy Wednesday. On the same date, Congress may hold a meeting to analyze the vetoes of the President of the Republic, Jair Bolsonaro. Among them, the controversial vetoes of the new Basic Sanitation Legal Framework (VET 30/2020 – Partial), for the modernization of the sector.

It is also worth mentioning that seven consortia and companies interested in the concession of water and sewage in the metropolitan region of Maceió submitted proposals aiming to bring basic sanitation to 13 cities in Alagoas, which gather 1.5 million inhabitants. The auction will also be held on Wednesday, at B3, in São Paulo, starting at 10 am, the first after the implementation of the new sector law and also leading the way as the first state water and sewage project structured by BNDES that will come off the paper. See more by clicking here.

Raia Drogasil foresaw the opening of 240 stores per year between 2021 and 2022, while the IRB received the credit rating “brAAA” from Standard & Poor’s, with a stable outlook.

In addition, Lojas Americanas raised its issuance of assets to US $ 500 million, while Camil announced that it will raise R $ 350 million through debentures. Locaweb announced the purchase of Etus Social Network Brasil, which works with social networks, for R $ 18.95 million.

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