IPCA-15 rises 0.45% in September, slightly higher than expected by economists


SÃO PAULO – The Broad National Consumer Price Index – Base 15 (IPCA-15) rose 0.45% in September in the monthly comparison, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) this Wednesday (23). For the calculation, prices were collected from August 14 to September 11, 2020 and compared with those in effect from July 15 to August 13, 2020.

The economists’ expectation, according to the Bloomberg consensus, was that inflation measured by the IPCA-15 would increase by 0.39% in September in the monthly comparison, after accelerating by 0.23% in the previous measurement. In the annual comparison, inflation was projected to increase by 2.6%, compared to 2.28% in the previous reading.

Of the nine groups of products and services surveyed, six were discharged in August. The biggest change (1.48%) and the biggest impact (0.30 pp) in the index came from the Food and beverages group, accelerating in relation to the result of August (0.34%). Transport increased 0.83% and contributed 0.16 pp. Household items increased by 0.79%, despite the slowdown in relation to the previous month (0.88%). The most intense negative contribution in the month’s index (-0.09 pp) came from Health and personal care (-0.69%). The other groups were between the 0.27% drop in Apparel and the 0.34% rise in Housing.

The result of the Food and Beverage group (1.48%) is mainly due to food for consumption at home, which accelerated from 0.61% in August to 1.96% in September. The largest contribution (0.09 pp) came from meats, with an increase of 3.42%. The largest variation came from tomatoes (22.53%), compared to a fall of 4.20% in the previous month. Soy oil (20.33%), rice (9.96%) and long life milk (5.59%) also increased. As a result, the three sub-items accumulated in the year highs of 34.94%, 28.05% and 27.33%, respectively. On the fall side, the highlights were onion (-19.09%), garlic (-11.90%) and potato (-8.20%).

Food outside the home dropped from 0.30% in August to 0.36% in September. Meal varied by 0.09%, compared to the 0.52% drop in the previous month, the snack accelerated to 0.89%, compared to August (0.06%).

The group with the second largest variation was Transport (0.83%). Gasoline prices (3.19%) rose for the third consecutive month and contributed with the greatest individual impact (0.15 pp) in the IPCA-15 of September. With the exception of Salvador (-2.66%), all areas surveyed increased in the price of this fuel, from 0.61% in Rio de Janeiro to 9.03% in Brasília. Diesel oil (2.93%) and ethanol (1.98%) also increased. Only the vehicle gas decreased (-2.58%).

Still in Transportation, airline tickets rose 6.11%, after four consecutive months of falls. Despite the increase, the sub-item accumulates a 55.18% drop in the year.

Household items (0.79%) was once again influenced by increases in the items TV, sound and computers (2.04%) and household appliances and equipment (0.66%). Personal computer prices rose 17.99% from January to September this year. The furniture item continues to be the highlight among the falls, with a decrease of 0.14%, the same variation of August.

The strongest negative contribution (-0.09 pp) and the most intense negative result (-0.69%) in September came from the Health and personal care group. This decrease is due to the health plan item (-2.31%), which contributed -0.10 pp, due to the decision of the National Supplementary Health Agency (ANS) to suspend readjustments of health plans until the end of 2020. With this, all the appropriate factor in advance in May, June, July and August, related to the adjustment that would be announced in July, was discounted in the IPCA-15 of September.

The Apparel group also fell (-0.27%) in September, although less intensely than in July (-0.91%) and August (-0.63%). Men’s (-0.31%), women’s (-0.52%) and children’s (-0.59%) clothes continue to fall, as well as footwear and accessories (-0.32%). Already jewels and trinkets rose 2.52% and accumulate in the year high of 8.79%.

In the Housing group (0.34%), the water and sewage rate rose 1.00% due to the 3.40% increase in tariffs in São Paulo (3.28%), since August 15. On the downside, piped gas (-1.65%) reflects reductions of 5.16% in Rio de Janeiro (-2.99%), as of August 1, and 8.88% in Curitiba (-7.35%), as of August 19. In the electric energy item (-0.03%), there was a 2.86% increase in Belém (0.28%), in effect since August 7.

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