Study predicts end of pandemic at the end of 2021 – Executive Digest


Covid-19’s public health crisis is expected to end in the last months of 2021, with normalcy expected to be reached next spring and group immunity in the autumn. These are the conclusions of the most recent study by US consultant McKinsey, quoted this Wednesday by the ‘Observer’.

The survey made a prediction for developed countries, believing that in these cases, economies should be able to reach the desired end of the pandemic in the third or fourth quarter of 2021, also anticipating that both normality and group immunity will happen earlier.

The study authors point out that these predictions may vary according to each country and taking into account some factors that concern a vaccine, namely when it will arrive, its effectiveness and safety and the use that each country will have. make it.

In addition to these, others are pointed out that will have an equal influence on the end of the viral epidemic and that are linked to immunity: what is its level in a given population, which the authors estimate reaches between 90 and 300 million people in the world; immunity to other coronaviruses and partial immunity, granted with other methods.

As far as vaccines are concerned, researchers believe that the Food and Drug Administration, the United States federal agency for the drug, should signal one or more by the end of 20201 or early 2021, leaving its approval for the first quarter of next year.

They also estimate that it takes about six months to distribute to the population, sufficiently for group immunity to be achieved. However, they emphasize that people should want to be vaccinated, in addition, the supply chains must be fast, as well as their availability.

According to the research, “group immunity can be achieved as early as the second quarter of 2021 if the vaccines are highly effective and if launched without problems”, otherwise the pandemic is expected to end in 2022 or even after that .

Although the research team had based itself in the United States for its prediction, they believe that the scenario will be similar in other developed countries, depending, of course, always on the factors already mentioned: vaccines and immunity of the population, which means that in the areas disadvantaged and with less vaccination possibilities, for example, the public health crisis continues.

The substantial reduction in mortality is the most decisive factor in determining the end of the pandemic, according to the authors, who also say that the population must now trust that the disease will end, gaining new habits and accepting all the implemented sanitary measures.


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