Infomoney – The Ibovespa falls strongly on Monday (21) following the performance of international stock exchanges. Pessimism is due to news that the UK is considering a new lockdown due to the increase in the number of new coronavirus cases. In Europe, bank stocks are still plummeting amid global scandal.
According to a report published by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ), documents from the United States government show that banks have challenged laws against money laundering, transferring large amounts of illicit origin to obscure accounts and criminal networks. The investigation revealed $ 2 trillion in suspicious transactions involving banks between 1999 and 2017.
On the London Stock Exchange, HSBC shares fell 4.9% and Standard Chartered fell 5.2%. According to FactSet, at the beginning of trading, HSBC’s shares had fallen to their lowest level in more than 25 years. In Hong Kong, HSBC and Standard Chartered shares fell by 5.33% and 6.18%, reaching the lowest levels since 1995 and 2002.
The loss spread to other institutions on the European stock exchanges, as there are also signs of similar illegal operations in relation to other banks in the continent, such as Barclays (-6.76%) and Deutsche Bank (-9.63%) , for example.
Regarding the coronavirus, Spain has already limited the displacement of 850,000 residents in the south of Madrid, only allowing them to leave the house to work, go to the doctor or take children to school.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO) the pandemic persists, and still kills 50,000 people a week.
At 12:40 pm (Brasília time) the Ibovespa fell by 2.28%, to 96,047 points. It is worth remembering that today is the stock option expiration day, which increases volatility due to the traditional dispute between bought and sold.
Meanwhile, the commercial dollar rose 1.27% to R $ 5.4444 in the purchase and to R $ 5.445 in the sale. The future dollar for October is up 0.95% to R $ 5.444.
In the future interest market, the DI for January 2022 rises six basis points at 3.06%, the DI for January 2023 gains nine base points at 4.52%, the DI for January 2025 advances 10 points- base at 6.45% and the DI for January 2027 varies positively seven basis points at 7.42%.
It also does nothing to encourage investors to analyze that the death of US Supreme Court Minister Ruth Bader Ginsburg could further hamper negotiations between Democrats and Republicans in Congress to approve a new economic stimulus package to combat the impacts of the pandemic.
U.S. President Donald Trump said he would appoint someone this week to replace Bader Ginsburg, something that should once again put the two parties in conflict.
For Fernando Genta, chief economist at XP Asset, many did not believe in the second wave of the coronavirus, but the growing number of deaths in Israel and Europe on the eve of the development of a vaccine again raises concerns.
Genta also points out that the American fiscal package is increasingly distant from being approved before the elections, which he believes will be troubled. “The mix of coronaviruses plus postal votes and a polarized scenario can legalize the dispute,” he explained during a live held by Stock Pickers early on Monday.
Still on the international front, attention was drawn on Saturday to the approval of the agreement between Oracle and Tik Tok by President Donald Trump. The agreement aims to avoid banning the application on American soil.
In Brazil, the discomfort with the fiscal scenario in the country continues amid growing doubts about the National Treasury’s ability to refinance the public debt.
Government members debated the Federative Pact this weekend with Senator Márcio Bittar (MDB-AC).
According to Folha de S.Paulo, the proposal reduces mandatory spending and paves the way for new expenses starting next year. The updated calculations indicate an economy greater than R $ 30 billion in 2021, while the leaner version would save around R $ 20 billion.
Among the indicators, financial market economists this week foresee a smaller drop in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2020 than they predicted last week, showed the Central Bank’s Focus Report. The median projection for GDP this year was -5.11% to -5.05%. For 2021, the expectation continues to grow by 3.50%.
In relation to the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for 2020, the median estimate of economists rose from 1.94% last week to 1.99% this week. The projection for 2021 remained at 3.01%.
The forecast for the dollar at the end of 2020 continued at R $ 5.25 and for 2021 it continued at R $ 5.00.
Finally, the expectation for the basic interest rate, Selic, followed at 2.00% per year for 2020 and 2.50% per year for 2021.
According to a report by leaf, the updated calculations indicate an economy greater than R $ 30 billion in 2021, while the leaner version would save around R $ 20 billion. The numbers depend on the approval of President Jair Bolsonaro.
The possibility of cutting costs is being considered by a new social program, although the president said last week that Renda Brasil is out of the question.
According to the newspaper, allies of the president defend that an initiative for low income be created, even if another name is used. Bittar’s report on the PEC of the Federative Pact is almost ready, and the text is now being analyzed with members of the Executive.
In addition, it was reported that deputies intend to cut benefits from judges, prosecutors and prosecutors in administrative reform. According to State of S. Paulo, amendments that limit the vacations of all public officials to 30 days per year, including for judges, must be included in the PEC, in addition to the end of privileges, such as compulsory retirement as a punishment for those already working.
Still on administrative reform, there is an expectation that an independent body for the management of the federal public service should be created, which would function as a human resources agency.
According to leaf, the agency would be responsible for creating criteria for occupying commissioned positions, mapping to reallocate people and evaluating performance. The latter may result in the dismissal of civil servants, including those already in office today.
At the same time, the government is preparing a decree to regulate new concessions for the Continuous Installment Benefit (BPC), paid to the elderly and people with low-income disabilities, starting in 2021. According to the State of S. Paulo, the change will allow the inclusion of almost 500 thousand people in the BPC.
The additional cost, of R $ 5.8 billion, will be offset by reducing costs with judicialization and measures to combat fraud, which can save up to R $ 10 billion. In other words, the net effect would still be savings of R $ 4.2 billion.
Replacement of Waldery Rodrigues
Another highlight is the information that the Ministry of Economy is analyzing three names to occupy the position of Waldery Rodrigues, special secretary of Finance. According to Folha de S.Paulo, they are Esteves Colnago and Jeferson Bittencourt, special advisers to the Minister of Economy Paulo Guedes, and Bruno Funchal, secretary of the National Treasury.
The exchange should take some time to occur because he is considered a relevant name in the ministry, but all the names considered are well evaluated by the minister, according to the newspaper.
Still on the radar, Economy Minister Paulo Guedes was ordered to pay R $ 50,000 in damages to the Federal Police Union of Bahia (Sindipol-BA) for comparing public servants to ‘parasites’ at an event in February this year. The Attorney General’s Office announced that it will appeal the sentence, handed down by the 4th Federal Civil Court of the Judicial Section of Bahia (SJBA).
In the corporate sphere, investors are now watching the debut of construction company and developer Cury on the stock exchange. The company is a subsidiary of Cyrela. The market will also react to the purchase of a college by Ser Educacional in Ceará, for R $ 24 million.
In addition, Banco do Brasil has released plans that it intends to be among the three largest banks in the Brazilian capital market within four years, while Latam has received approval from the Southern District Court of New York for the modified financing proposal, within judicial reorganization process.
Also on Friday, Suzano informed that BNDES Participações is conducting a public offering for the secondary distribution of shares, issued by Suzano and held by BNDESPar.
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