With LDU’s victory, what SPFC needs to qualify for Libertadores – 09/30/2020

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LDU’s 4-0 win over Binacional last night (29th) made São Paulo’s life even more difficult in the group stage of the Copa Libertadores. Tricolor depends on a combination of results or, in the most optimistic scenario, reversing a disadvantage of 11 goals in balance for River Plate, the competitor for the vacancy in the round of 16.

Check the table and possible scenarios below:

The remaining games in the Group D da Libertadores (Brasília times):

Today (30), at 9:30 pm: River Plate x São Paulo

October 20, 9:30 pm:
São Paulo x Binacional
River Plate x LDU

If São Paulo wins twice

River Plate (in Argentina) and Binacional (home) wins: São Paulo would close the group stage with ten points. In this case, River would also reach a maximum of ten points (if it won LDU in the last round). In this scenario, Tricolor would have to cheer for the Ecuadorian team to take points from the River in Buenos Aires, otherwise they would have to take the current difference of 11 goals from the balance for the Argentine team.

A win and a draw

São Paulo life would be much more difficult (and complex) in the scenario of a victory and a draw in the final two rounds. In this account, São Paulo would reach eight points.

If the tie is against River Plate: in the final round, São Paulo would have to beat Binacional, hope LDU beat the Argentines and, in the combination of the two games, score 11 disadvantage goals in the balance.

If São Paulo wins River and draws with Binacional: he would have to “just” hope for a simple victory for the LDU in Buenos Aires, in the game that would be life and death for the Argentines.

A victory and a defeat

If São Paulo wins River Plate and then loses to Binacional: he would have to root for LDU to beat the Argentine team and, in the midst of all that, he would still need to take the 11 goals off balance that River currently has an advantage.

If São Paulo lose to River Plate: is eliminated from the Copa Libertadores.

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