The first round of research conducted by Ibope in 25 capitals shows a scenario with significant differences in the way voters evaluate President Jair Bolsonaro’s administration.
While in Salvador, Bahia, the rate of those who consider the government to be excellent or good is 18%, in the capital of Roraima, Boa Vista, the approval reaches 66%. When analyzing the failure rate, these two cities also occupy both extremes. In the first capital, the percentage of those who rate the government as bad or very bad reaches 62%, while in the second, 15%.
Only in São Luís (MA) an Ibope survey has not yet been carried out after the official registration of applications.
The average approval rate for the Bolsonaro government is higher in the capitals of the North and Midwest and lower in the Northeast, South and Southeast. Professor at the Federal University of Goiás (UFG), Pedro Mundim believes that, with the exception of Boa Vista and Salvador, which are far from the average, the other capitals are closer to national surveys released recently.
Ibope’s latest national survey on the president’s approval, completed in September, showed approval by the Bolsonaro government by 40%. Those who considered the government to be regular totaled 29%. This was the same percentage of Brazilians who considered the government bad or very bad.
In this first round of Ibope research in the capitals, it is possible to identify three groups, according to the level of approval and disapproval of the president. In the first are cities with approval within the national average, with small variations within the margin of error, such as Goiânia, Palmas, João Pessoa, Maceió, Macapá, Belo Horizonte and Natal.
In the group of cities with approval above the national average are, in addition to Boa Vista, cities such as Manaus, Porto Velho, Cuiabá and Rio Branco. In the third group of cities with a high percentage of voters who disapprove of the Bolsonaro government are, in addition to Salvador, cities such as Teresina, Porto Alegre, Fortaleza, São Paulo, Recife, Belém, Vitória and Florianópolis.
According to Pedro Mundim, only a more detailed analysis of the political situation in Boa Vista and Salvador can provide further information to explain these very significant differences. He points out, however, that the Bahian capital has been a place of resistance for leftist parties and this may be related to the greater disapproval of the president.
“In Salvador, there is a tradition of PT leaders in the capital or of left-wing parties that may explain this high disapproval. In other words, what can be said is that there are local issues that affect these percentages. But, in general, the capitals are relatively within the general average of national research ”, observes Mundim.
The UFG professor draws attention to the effects that the president’s approval and disapproval indicator can have on elections in the capitals. In Rio, Mayor Marcelo Crivella (Republicans) and Luiz Lima (PSL) try to paste the image on the President. Bolsonaro’s approval in Rio, however, is numerically below the national average (34%). In São Paulo, where Bolsonaro’s approval is 27%, Celso Russomano (Republicans) is the candidate supported by the president.
“There is a clear relationship. Where the government is highly disapproved, it is not interesting for candidates to stick their image on the president. Where approval is high, this can result in some gain for the candidate. But it will be necessary to pay attention to the following: if more than one candidate seeks this strategy, voters will not be able to differentiate them because both will be placing themselves as allies of the president. When this happens, voters tend to seek other information to identify how these candidates differ, ”explains Mundim.