The Brazilian Association of Corrugated Cardboard Producers (ABPO) brought good news for the paper and cellulose sector: sales of corrugated cardboard in September soared 15.8% in the year and 1.5% in relation to August. It is the fourth consecutive month of discharge.
To the XP Investimentos, in a report sent on Wednesday (14), the data continues to reinforce the sector’s resilience in the face of the pandemic.
“We see favorable results for the actions of Irani (RANI3) e Klabin (KLBN11), ”Said analyst Yuri Pereira.
The view is reinforced by Ágora, which sees heated demand as an opportunity to raise prices in the short term.
“Our sources pointed to the possibility of a 3 to 5% increase in the price of the corrugated box”, say analysts Thiago Lofiego and Luiza Mussi.
Klabin, one of the main companies benefiting from the increase according to the pair, holds 18% of the market share in the sale of cardboard boxes and leads the domestic paper and packaging segment.
The initial estimate was that corrugated cardboard volumes would be stable in 2020. Now, the forecast is for growth of 5-6% in the year.
“We think there is a restocking component that helps sustain these strong numbers, as the uncertainties caused by the pandemic in its early stages probably forced buyers to run out of stocks to preserve cash,” they argue.
However, they also believe that the strong increase was driven by the year-end sales season, as Natal e Black Friday.
“At this point, we also think that buyers are adding extra volume as demand from the end user is really strong,” they add.
Ágora maintained the purchase recommendation, with a target price of R $ 27, with a potential for appreciation of 10.4% compared to the last closing.
“The shares are traded at 8.9 times the EV / EBITDA for 2021, which we see as attractive, especially considering the company’s growth cycle through the Puma 2 project, with the first phase starting in mid-2021”, justify .
XP also recommends buying the paper, with a target price of R $ 32, which implies an appreciation of 30.8%.