Covid-19 breaks records in Portugal. Radiography of the pandemic in 10 numbers and many other graphs to understand what is happening – Observer


The alternation between north and south continues: the third municipality with the highest risk index is Sernancelhe (140.87), the fourth is Odivelas (129.79). It is necessary to reach the fifth place to find an Alentejo municipality. Reguengos de Monsaraz (123,24), alongside Mora (121,48), are the only two that do not belong to the ARS of Lisbon and Vale do Tejo or to the Norte in the top 10.

Looking at the ARS, two stand out since the beginning of the pandemic and have disputed, among themselves, the highest level of risk. Currently, the Lisbon and Tagus Valley region is in first place with 66.99 points. The North, has 56.26.

The difference for third place is considerable – the ARS do Algarve with an index of 28.51 – and is even greater when looking at the areas with the lowest risk, Madeira (7.75) and the Azores (3.70) . In the archipelagos, the risk index has remained stable (and low) throughout the pandemic, with a much less marked growth than in the rest of the country.

At the beginning of the pandemic, in the last days of March, the ARS do Norte stood out, and a lot, from all the other administrative regions of health. It was in June that the difference for Lisbon and the Tagus Valley began to blur. As of July 15, the south took the lead and did not lose it again.

Zooming out and moving from micro to macro view, Portugal, in its set of municipalities, currently has a risk index of 51.88 and an infection rate of 0.74%.

Looking at the analysis tables, there is an exact date for the moment when the pandemic changed the mobility of the Portuguese: March 12. Since then, everything has changed and is far from returning to normal: retail and entertainment, workplaces and public transport are the most resented.

The percentage of time that the Portuguese spend in their residential area remains high, when compared to the reference value, and is currently 6% above the usual. While the remaining categories measure the change in the number of visitors, this reveals the time spent at home – even on working days it will be high, since it also has hours of sleep. On October 5, a national holiday, the Portuguese spent, for example, another 20% of their time at home, higher than the last counted day, October 9, with the said 6%. At the peak of the feedlot, the highest value (46% above the reference value) was reached on 10 April. Other peaks that can be seen in the graphs correspond to holidays such as the 25th of February (carnival) or the 1st of May.

Above, and much of the reference value, is the number of visitors to parks, currently at 15%. If at its lowest point in the fall, on April 5, it reached -88%, it was during the summer months well above the benchmark. This can be explained not only by the good weather, but also by the impossibility of visiting other places during leisure hours as they have tighter security rules.


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