In the final stretch of the race that will define who will be in charge of the USA for the next four years, the polls show a steady advantage for Democrat Joe Biden, but far from being a reason to consider that the dispute is defined. The former vice president has a comfortable difference from Donald Trump in the national poll, which serves more as a climate thermometer among voters – just over nine percentage points, according to the Fivethirtyeight website average.
But, for a more accurate picture of the race, it is necessary to look at the polls in the states – the elections in the USA work on the Electoral College model, to which each state sends a certain number of delegates, 538 in all, who will choose the new one. president. The vote of these super voters depends on the outcome of the popular vote in each of the 50 states.
Biden has an advantage in historically democratic states like California or New York, just as Trump is ahead in places like Kentucky, Mississippi and Texas. In the polls of “pendulum states”, which do not have a definite historical trend, the Democrat has an advantage in most of them, but in some cases it is less than a percentage point of the Republican.
Today, according to Fivethirtyeight, which takes into account research data and historical trends, Joe Biden wins in 87 out of every 100 electoral simulations, while Trump wins in 12 out of 100. There is still a 1% chance of a tie in the College Election, 269 to 269, a case in which the election would be decided by the Chamber.
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