Favoritism # 17: see which teams are most likely to win in the Brazilian round | numerologists


Favoritismos presents the potential that each team carries for round # 17 of the Brasileirão. It compares the post-stop performance as home team or visitor, in the competition itself and also in the last six games, regardless of command and competition, considering the defensive and offensive performances of the teams in the aerial game and in the low. In partnership with economist Bruno Imaizumi, we analyzed 68,424 submissions registered by the Statistical Spy in 2,812 Brasileirões games since 2013 that serve as a parameter to understand the current productivity of each team. Thanks for reading. Good game!

– Photo: Statistical Spy

  • Although Fluminense is at a low point in terms of aerial goals (four out of the last ten – 40% – and ten out of the last 20 – 50%), it is likely to score that way because Ceará suffers a lot from these plays. Not counting penalties and direct fouls, he took seven of the last ten (70%) and 12 of the last 20 (60%) with high balls.
  • In the Brasileirão, Fluminense has the fourth best performance (5V, 2E, 1D, 71%), while Ceará is the fourth worst visitor (1V, 1E, 5D, 19%).
  • The accuracy of Fluminense’s attack is his great virtue: he is the fourth player who has the least number of submissions, but the second who needs the least number of submissions to make a goal, just 6.4. As a comparison, Ceará needs 11.9 to achieve the same when visiting, 14th performance.

– Photo: Statistical Spy

  • Coritiba is the third worst player in the Brasileirão (2V, 2E, 3D, 38%), while Santos is the third best visitor of the competition (3V, 2E, 2D, 52%).
  • The team from São Paulo is very weak, but has the probable return of Soteldo. He lost at home to Atlético-GO, wasting many and suffering few submissions.
  • The two teams scored four of the last ten goals from aerial balls. Not counting penalties and direct fouls, Coritiba suffered four, and Santos five from the last ten. The potential for aerial goals in the match is low.

– Photo: Statistical Spy

  • Athletico-PR is the second visitor with the worst average of goals scored in the Brasileirão, 0.83 per match. Interestingly, only Atlético-GO is worse (average 0.56). But the team from Goiás, when in charge, has the seventh best attack (1.57) while the Paraná team, the fifth worst visiting defense (1.67).
  • In home games, Atlético-GO needs an average of 8.9 submissions to get a goal, the eighth biggest home team. Athletico-PR, on the other hand, has taken a goal for every 7.3 submissions, the third worst score among visitors.
  • It is a game for success in low ball moves. Atlético-GO only scored three of the last ten goals from the top, the Paranaense took just four of the last ten this way, not counting penalties and direct fouls. The paranaense made five of the last ten by the top, but the goiano, only took four.

– Photo: Statistical Spy

  • São Paulo is the second best client of the Brasileirão (5V, 2E, 0D, 81% of use) and receives the ninth visitor (1V, 4E, 2D, 33%). The São Paulo team has the fourth best home attack, average 1.71, and the second best defense (0.57). Away from home, Grêmio has the tenth attack (1.00) and the sixth defense (1.14).
  • A hindrance for São Paulo in the match is that without counting penalties and direct fouls, Grêmio suffered seven of the last ten goals and 12 of the last 20 (60%), but São Paulo’s attack only made three of the last ten this way. But as Grêmio suffers a lot from the top, it can happen.
  • Grêmio is much more efficient in the aerial game when they have the ball than when defending. Of the last ten goals he scored, Grêmio managed six from the top. São Paulo only took four out of ten like that, but it’s closing its airspace just now, because it took 11 of the last 20 goals (55%) by the top.

– Photo: Statistical Spy

  • The defense of Corinthians will need to be very attentive to the aerial game as there is great potential for Flamengo to score in this way. Of the last ten goals that the São Paulo team conceded without counting penalties and direct fouls, seven were born in plays from the top, and of the last ten scored by Flamengo, eight were aerial.
  • Corinthians scored by the top six of the last ten goals, also a high in influence, but Flamengo improved its anti-aircraft defense in the last games: it took nine of the last 20 goals by the top (45%), but of the last ten, only three were born this way (30%).
  • Flamengo is the best visitor of the competition (5V, 1E and 2D, 67%) and their coach already knows better the possibilities of each athlete than Vagner Mancini, who only managed Corinthians in one match. The games marathon is a complicating factor for Flamengo.

– Photo: Statistical Spy

Favorite >> International

  • A gigantic challenge for Vasco because roughly the Internacional only takes a goal from an aerial ball (there were eight of the last ten suffered (80%) and 13 of the last 20 (65%), but Vasco only made four of the last ten (40% ) and five of the last 20 (25%) that way, not counting penalties and direct fouls.
  • The recent performance of the Vascain defense is not encouraging. The team played 14 games for the Brasileirão. In the first ten, he scored ten goals. Only in the last four matches he also scored ten goals, and the average that was 1.0 goals conceded per game rose to 2.5.
  • In their first ten games, Internacional scored 15 goals, averaging 1.5 per game. In the next six games, he scored 11 goals, and the average of goals scored rose to 1.83.

– Photo: Statistical Spy

  • Bragantino is the sixth principal who finishes the most (average 15.6) in the Brasileirão, but needs 12.1 average finishes to get a goal, fifth worst home efficiency. He has the 12th main attack (average 1.29 goals scored per game) and the 15th defense (average 1.43 goals conceded).
  • Bragantino has the third worst performance in the Brasileirão (2V, 2E, 3D, 38%), and Sport is the ninth visitor (2V, 2E, 4D, 33%). Only Sport has the third worst visiting attack (average 0.88 per game) and the 12th defense (average 1.5).
  • In favor of Sport there is the fact that he is becoming a specialist in the aerial game, with eight of the last ten (80%) and 14 of the last 20 (70%) goals scored having this origin. Bragantino suffers from the high ball. So it took six of the last ten and 13 of the last 20 (65%).

– Photo: Estastístico Espião

  • Fortaleza has the best home defense between the 20 teams of Serie A with only three goals conceded in seven games (average 0.43). Palmeiras has the best visiting defense of the competition, with six goals conceded in seven matches (average 0.86). It is a game that tends towards balance.
  • The Palmeiras team will want to show reaction power in the first game after the resignation of coach Vanderlei Luxemburgo, but being coached by interim Andrey Lopes tends to be a hindrance against a team so well organized by Rogério Ceni.

– Photo: Statistical Spy

  • It is difficult to imagine the physical state of the Goiás team for this match. He played Saturday (Atlético-MG, in Belo Horizonte), Tuesday (Flamengo, in Rio), would play this Friday (Bahia, in Goiânia) and again on Monday (Botafogo, again in Rio). Four games, airports and hotels in ten days.
  • Goiás scores a goal every 7.22 submissions, the second best efficiency of the entire competition. As a visitor, he needs nine conclusions to get a goal, fifth best mark. But Botafogo is the second team that requires more submissions from opponents to get a goal, on average 12 attempts.
  • But on the other side: although on average Botafogo needs 11.4 submissions to get a goal (14th mark), it is likely to have a better mark in this confrontation, since Goiás is the team against which opponents need less chances to score: one goal conceded every 7.9 shots.

– Photo: Statistical Spy

  • It is noteworthy the fact that in the seven times that the teams faced each other for Serie A under Bahia from 2006 onwards, there was a draw. An incredible pattern. Even so, Atlético-MG is under threat and will be the last to enter the field in the round. You must press from the beginning.
  • Bahia has the fifth worst use of the Brasileirão (3V, 1E, 4D, 42%) and in the last 13 games, won two, drew three and lost eight (23% of use). You will have to do something very different to stop Jorge Sampaoli’s team, who have won nine and drawn one in the last 13 games (72%).
  • Atlético-MG is the team that finishes most in the Brasileirão, averaging 17.2 finishes per game, and scores a goal every 8.6 attempts, fifth highest efficiency. He scored four of the last ten goals from the top, and Bahia took five of the last ten that way without counting penalties and aerial moves.

We present the statistical probabilities based on the parameters of the “Expected Goals” or “Goals Expectation” (xG) model, a metric consolidated in the data analysis that has as reference 68,424 submissions registered by the Statistical Spy in 2,812 games of Brasileirões. For this season, we started to consider the games played since the 2013 edition. In addition to the database being expanded in one season, we also started to consider the height of the goalkeepers who suffered each of these finishes, the difference in market value of the teams in each season, the playing time and the difference in the score at the time of each submission, in addition to the angle and distance between the ball at each conclusion and the goal itself.

The model used in the analyzes follows a statistical distribution called Poisson bivariate, which calculates the probabilities of events (in this case, the goals of each team) happening within a certain period of time (the game).

Favoritisms hit 66 results in 147 games analyzed, a 45% advantage.

* The Statistical Spy team is formed by: Caio Carvalho, Guilherme Maniaudet, Guilherme Marçal, Leandro Silva, Roberto Maleson and Valmir Storti


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