Polls show a tighter dispute scenario in this final stretch of the US presidential campaign in two major electoral college states, Florida and Pennsylvania. In addition, the average of national polls on the RealClearPolitics website also points to a drop in the difference between President Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden.
After opening just over 10 percentage points ahead of Trump on October 11, Biden’s lead in the national poll average dropped to 7.1 percentage points today, according to the RealClearPolitics website.
However, for the website FiveThirtyEight, which specializes in research analysis, the Democrat has been increasing his chances of victory at the Electoral College since the end of September and today has an 88% chance of being elected, against 11% of Trump. In the national popular vote, FiveThirtyEight predicts a victory for the Democrat by more than 7 percentage points, an advantage that has been maintained for about a month.
Donald Trump and Joe Biden during the first debate in the American elections – Photo: Patrick Semansky / AP Photo
In Florida, the average of RealClearPolitics polls points to a technical tie between the two candidates, but with President Trump on an upward trend in voting intentions, with 48.2%, while Biden would be losing ground, with 47.8%. The Democrat has struggled to attract support from the Hispanic constituency, especially men. This difference of 0.4 percentage point in favor of Trump is in line with the narrow advantage that the president maintained in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, which resulted in a victory for the Republican by a margin of 1.2 point.
FiveThirtyEight, meanwhile, still predicts Biden’s victory in Florida by a margin of 1.5 percentage points. That margin, however, is well below the 4.1-point difference in favor of the Democrat foreseen two weeks ago and well below the 7.6 point lead on July 24, during the height of the Florida covid-19 epidemic.
The dispute also seems to be getting tighter in Pennsylvania, where Biden’s lead is less today than it was two weeks ago. According to RealClearPolitics polls average, Biden has 49.6% of the voting intentions in the state, while Trump has the support of 45.8%. The current difference, 3.8% between the candidates, reached 9.3 points in favor of the Democrat two weeks ago. According to FiveThirtyEight’s analysis, Biden maintains an 85% chance of winning in Pennsylvania, up from 88% two weeks ago.