Ibope survey in Rio de Janeiro: Paes, 30%; Crivella, 12%; Martha, 8%; Benedita, 7% | 2020 Elections in Rio de Janeiro

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  • Eduardo Paes (DEM): 30%
  • Crivella (Republicans): 12%
  • Martha Rocha (PDT): 8%
  • Benedita da Silva (PT): 7%
  • Flag of Mello (Rede): 3%
  • Renata Souza (PSOL): 3%
  • Luiz Lima (PSL): 3%
  • Cyro Garcia (PSTU): 2%
  • Clarissa Garotinho (Pros): 1%
  • Fred Luz (New): 1%
  • Paulo Messina (MDB): 1%
  • None / white / null: 23%
  • Don’t know / Didn’t answer: 5%

Glória Heloiza (PSC) and Henrique Simonard (PCO) had less than 1%.

The name of Suêd Haidar (PMB) was on the disc presented to the interviewees, however, it was not mentioned by any of them, according to Ibope.

In relation to the previous survey by Ibope, released on October 2:

  • Eduardo Paes went from 27% to 30%
  • Crivella remained at 12%
  • Martha Rocha kept 8%
  • Benedita da Silva remained with 7%
  • Flag of Mello went from 2% to 3%
  • Renata Souza went from 2% to 3%
  • Luiz Lima went from 1% to 3%
  • Cyro Garcia went from 3% to 2%
  • Clarissa Garotinho went from 2% to 1%
  • Fred Luz went from 0% to 1%
  • Paulo Messina went from 0% to 1%
  • Glória Heloiza stayed with 0%
  • Henrique Simonard stayed with 0%
  • Suêd Haidar had 1% and was not mentioned in the second survey
  • The undecided remained 7% to 5%, and whites or null were 28% to 23%

According to Ibope, voting intentions for former mayor Eduardo Paes are more pronounced among Cariocas who rate the current municipal administration as bad and terrible (37%) and among Catholics (38%). In relation to the previous round, there was an increase of 17 percentage points in voting intentions among those with primary education (from 17% to 34%); 13 percentage points among voters aged 35 to 44 years (from 17% to 30%); and 9 percentage points among those who earn less than 1 minimum wage (20% to 29%).

Also according to Ibope, the current mayor Crivella continues to stand out among evangelicals (24%) and among voters who evaluate his administration well (61%); and that Crivella shows a decrease of 7 percentage points (20% to 13%) among voters who have elementary school.

The survey also asked who voters would not vote for at all. The percentages were as follows:

  • Crivella: 57%
  • Clarissa Garotinho: 40%
  • Eduardo Paes: 30%
  • Benedita da Silva: 29%
  • Cyro Garcia: 16%
  • Luiz Lima: 10%
  • Martha Rocha: 9%
  • Fred Light: 9%
  • Paulo Messina: 9%
  • Flag of Mello: 8%
  • Heloiza Glory: 8%
  • Renata Souza: 8%
  • Suêd Haidar: 8%
  • Henrique Simonard: 7%
  • Don’t know / didn’t answer: 7%
  • You could vote for everyone: 1%

Ibope also dealt with the spontaneous vote intent, when the voter says who he will vote for without having the names of the candidates presented. See the results:

  • Eduardo Paes: 22%
  • Crivella: 9%
  • Benedita da Silva: 3%
  • Martha Rocha: 3%
  • Luiz Lima: 2%
  • Flag of Mello: 1%
  • Renata Souza: 1%
  • Others: 1%
  • White / null: 27%
  • Don’t know / didn’t answer: 30%

Clarissa Garotinho, Cyro Garcia, Fred Luz, Henrique Simonard, Glória Heloiza, Paulo Messina and Suêd Haidar did not reach 1%.

Ibope also questioned whether the second round of the mayoral election was today and the dispute was only between Paes and Crivella for whom voters would vote:

Eduardo Paes 50% x 21% Crivella (white / null: 25%; don’t know: 4%)

The survey was commissioned by TV Globo.

  • Margin of error: 3 percentage points more or less
  • Who was heard: 1,001 voters in the city of Rio de Janeiro
  • When the survey was conducted: October 13-15
  • Identification number in the Electoral Court: RJ-09221/2020
  • The confidence level used is 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the results will reflect the current electoral moment, considering the margin of error.

Electoral surveys: what is a sample, margin of error and confidence level

See who are the candidates for the mayor of Rio in the 2020 elections

2020 ELECTIONS IN RIO DE JANEIRO

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