Ibovespa closes down, but does not erase gains in the 2nd consecutive week of increase; dollar advances to R $ 5.64

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SÃO PAULO – The Ibovespa closed down on Friday (16), pressured by the shares of Petrobras (PETR3; PETR4) and banks. Together, the oil company and financial institutions account for 23.39% of Ibovespa’s theoretical portfolio.

Petrobras again followed the drop in oil prices in the international market. The barrel of Brent – used as a reference by the state-owned company – fell 0.83% to US $ 42.80, while the barrel of WTI fell 0.51% to US $ 40.75. For more action highlights, click here.

It is worth remembering that on Monday (19th), stock options will expire, which leads to an increase in volatility due to the dispute between bought and sold.

Despite the drop on Friday, the index maintained a 0.85% rise this week, the second consecutive positive performance of the benchmark. The last four trading sessions have been marked by good news in the corporate field, which overshadowed concerns about the government’s fiscal situation and investors’ disappointment with the stalemate over the trillion-dollar stimulus package in the United States.

Before the split, Magazine Luiza’s (MGLU3) papers attracted purchases on Tuesday (13th) back from the holiday of Nossa Senhora Aparecida. On Wednesday (14), the discovery of four new cases of African swine fever in wild boar in Germany helped to boost Brazilian slaughterhouses.

Today, the Ibovespa fell 0.75%, to 98,309 points.

Meanwhile, the commercial dollar rose 0.32% to R $ 5.642 in the purchase and to R $ 5.643 in the sale. The US dollar maturing in November recorded an increase of 0.71%, to R $ 5.656 in the after-market.

In the future interest market, the DI for January 2022 rose 13 basis points to 3.42%, the DI for January 2023 advanced 16 basis points to 4.81%, the DI for January 2025 increased by nine basis points at 6.63% and the DI for January 2027 closed with a positive variation of six base points at 7.54%.

With today’s fall, the Brazilian Stock Exchange again detached itself from international indices, which registered slight gains amid Pfizer’s announcement that it could apply for the emergency use of its coronavirus vaccine as early as the end of November.

The Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices were up 0.39% and 0.01% respectively. Nasdaq fell 0.36%.

Also on the radar, US retail sales rose 1.9% last month, above the median forecast of economists polled by Reuters, which pointed to a 0.7% growth in September. The figure took American retailers to a higher level than in February.

However, caution still set the tone due to the growing cases of coronavirus in the United States and new waves of infections and lockdowns in Europe. The difficulty in negotiations between Democrats and Republicans for a stimulus package in the United States also had a negative impact.

In Europe, in the face of good results from the automaker Daimler and LVMH Moët Hennessy, a producer of luxury brands such as Louis Vuitton and Dior, the main exchanges closed higher than 1%.

However, the United Kingdom missed the deadline it had set to close a trade agreement with the European Union after Brexit. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has threatened to give up the deal but has not yet broken off negotiations.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen left talks with the British on Thursday after a member of her team was tested positive with Covid-19. She is quarantined.

In Brazil, the market followed a forecast that the government may have to pay more than R $ 640 billion in government bonds between January and April 2021.

It is more than double what is usually paid. There is concern about the country’s ability to pay the bill, especially if a replacement program for Bolsa Família and emergency aid is approved.

Maturity of Brazilian securities

THE Estadão prints as the cover story the maturity of federal government debt securities in the amount of R $ 643 billion. This value is expected to expire between January and April, and represents more than double the average recorded in the last five years.

This means that, only in this four-month period, the Treasury will need to pay investors the equivalent of 15.4% of the Brazilian domestic debt.

The deadline for payment of the debt by the government is getting tighter due to the shortening of financing. With greater market distrust of Brazilian accounts, the Treasury has been issuing bonds with a shorter term, from six months to one year. There is mistrust about the country’s ability to pay for the papers in the long run.

With the pandemic, the government had to pay more. Thus, the public debt should exceed 100% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by the end of the year, a level considered high for emerging countries.

There is suspicion about the Brazilian fiscal framework. Government and Congress have been committed to approving an income program to replace emergency aid and Bolsa Família. With the emergency aid of R $ 600, the level of poverty reached the lowest level in the history of Brazil. Without it, millions of people must return to poverty.

Thus, investors follow the speeches of political authorities on fiscal risk in Brazil. It is worth mentioning that, on the eve, Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ), mayor, said that the government base is understanding that there is no way out of the roof and most deputies support the reforms, in a virtual event of the BMG bank.

Maia’s speech is opposed to Vice President Hamilton Mourão, who said earlier yesterday that the Citizen Income may be out of the ceiling, according to Estadão, which helped put pressure on Brazilian assets yesterday afternoon.

Political dispute over vaccine

The newspaper Value brings as a cover story a report that states that technicians from the Ministry of Health have shown concern with the politicization around the vaccine against coronavirus.

On Wednesday (14), the Ministry of Health presented to state health secretaries a vaccination schedule against Covid-19 in which it predicted the start of vaccination for April 2021. The schedule includes only the AstraZeneca vaccine, developed in partnership with the University of Oxford, which is in the testing phase and should be produced in Brazil by Fiocruz, in Manguinhos, in Rio.

According to the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo, part of the health secretaries present at the meeting was left with the impression that the federal government was ignoring the vaccine of the Chinese company Sinovac, which has been tested by the Butantan Institute, in São Paulo.

The Health Secretary of São Paulo, Jean Gorinchteyn, told the newspaper that “vaccines are not being treated in a republican way by the Ministry of Health”.

At the meeting, technicians from his portfolio said that the vaccine from the Butantan Institute may be available as early as December, with 46 million doses. Another 14 million would be ready by February and 40 million by June.

According to the Value, Ministry of Health technicians fear that the government will discriminate against the immunizer developed in São Paulo.

Corporate Radar

CSN announced on Thursday night (15) that it reversed losses in the third quarter, reaching a profit of more than R $ 1 billion. In the previous year, it had a loss of more than R $ 870 million in the same period.

Magazine Luiza bought the digital business school ComSchool, for an undisclosed amount. The company says it will seek to expand the business capacity of its 32,000 registered salespeople. ComSchool offers about 200 courses in digital marketing, e-commerce and social networks.

Higher highs

Active% ChangePrice R$)
BRKM55.5765622.34
SUZB34.6112550.59
KLBN113.9887225.81
USIM53.8709711.27
JBSS33.5714323.2

Higher casualties

Active% ChangePrice R$)
COGN3-4.166674.83
YDUQ3-3.2971225.81
SANB11-3.1230330.71
GNDI3-3.041665.03
IRBR3-36.79

Klabin informed that Sogemar agreed to reduce the amount requested to be merged. The new merger proposal provides for the issue of 69,394,696 common shares, in the amount of R $ 274 million. The previous proposal foresaw a higher number of shares, 92,902,188.

Triple Play, from the telecommunications industry and São Paulo developer One Innovation, gave up plans for a public offering of shares.

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