The pandemic, it seems, is far from over. A few months ago with Covid-19 under control, Europe, which was one of the epicenters of the disease in the world, is facing a post-summer surge in the numbers of new cases. Over there, what seemed to be under control is not. In the past 7 days, the old continent has broken all records and relives moments of tension.
On Monday (10/12), for example, there were 117,193 new infections, three times more than on April 4, when it reached 37,794, the highest level of the “first wave”. If we add the figures for the last ten days, the index is even more frightening: there were 979,585 positive results, 6.5% more than the entire month of September in Brazil.
The survey was carried out by (M) data, nucleus of data journalism of the Metropolises, based on the balance sheets of the Ministry of Health and Our World in Data, a website that gathers information on the pandemic worldwide.
The concern is so great that the World Health Organization (WHO) has issued a warning about contagion in the region. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general, asked, in a press conference this Monday (10/10), that the nations continue with the measures of containment. “Many cities and countries are also reporting an increase in hospitalizations and ICU occupation. Almost 70% of all Covid-19 cases reported globally in the last week are from ten countries and almost half of the cases come from just three countries, ”he said.
Countries on alert
The increase in the number of infected is driven by the records broken by France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Russia, the Czech Republic and Spain. In an attempt to contain a new tragedy, some of these countries and other neighbors gave in and returned to implementing isolation measures.
The Netherlands resumed a lockdown partial this Wednesday (10/14), closing bars and restaurants, but kept schools open. On the contrary, in Moscow, virtual education will become a reality for students next week. In France, starting next Saturday (17/10), Paris and some other major cities will have a curfew.
Italy, after exceeding 5,000 daily infections for the first time, also prepares restrictive measures, in an attempt not to go through the same situation as the last time. Like Portugal, which decreed a state of calamity due to new peaks since the first infection.
Brazil is in a different situation, but at the same time it is worrying. Regarding new infections, the country is 36 days below the whole of Europe. Deaths, on the other hand, have been higher since May.
For specialists, however, it is only a matter of time for the cases in the country to grow again. “With the fall of social distance, we will make the virus regain space. We will stay in this period of uphill and downhill for some time. The trend is that in Brazil, as well as in Europe, we will enter this wave dynamics ”, explained Jonas Lotufo Brant De Carvalho, an infectologist and professor at the University of Brasília (UnB).
Wildo Navegantes de Araújo, professor of epidemiology at UnB, believes that a decisive factor will weigh against Brazil. “This parallel cannot be made so linear because we are not even living the first complete wave. There is a risk that we will be in a situation that is not very similar to what is happening in Europe, but with a ‘second wave’ linked to the first. They will unite, become a mega wave, and this, from an economic and public health point of view, will be a collapse ”, he said.
On Twitter, doctor of virology Atila Iamarino explained that climate change will also influence the behavior of the virus here. “It follows seasonality. Europe had much better control than Brazil and is entering a dreadful winter. There is a bed missing again. In our second pandemic winter, the belt will be tight before it starts, ”he said.