The surge in food prices drove official inflation in the country to 0.64% in September, the highest result for the month since 2003, according to data from the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) released yesterday by the IBGE.
Meats, rice and soybean oil weighed in the families’ pockets, as well as gasoline, which may put pressure again in October, due to the new readjustment disclosed by Petrobrás in the refineries. Some items related to tourism, such as airline tickets, rental cars and tour packages, also show a reaction.
The IPCA was above expectations even by the most pessimistic economists heard by the Broadcast Projections, who estimated a median advance of 0.54%. The result prompted a series of upward revisions in financial market estimates for inflation at the end of 2020. However, bets remain below the 4% target pursued by the Central Bank. In September, the IPCA rate accumulated in 12 months reached 3.14%.
“It is a worrying inflation (in September), but there is no risk for this year, when the IPCA is likely to remain at 2.5%. The question is in 2021, when we should have a pressured exchange rate, pressured commodities and China. with strong growth “, predicted the chief economist of MB Associados consultancy, Sergio Vale.
Quantitas economist João Fernandes does not believe that September’s higher inflation threatens the central bank’s conduct of monetary policy. He argues that the IPCA was driven by one-off factors, while the risk to low interest rates in the country remains fiscal.
“There is no comparison of the importance of this IPCA with the short-term fiscal uncertainty. Higher inflation reduces the chance of a further cut in the Selic rate (basic interest rate), but it is a limited effect. What could cause a rise in interest rates? now it would be the government to break the commitment to the ceiling, not a reaction to this inflation “, said Fernandes.
The current scenario of uncertainties about fiscal adjustment has helped to devalue the real against the dollar, which makes wholesale commodities and inputs more expensive and ends up also reaching retail, recalls André Braz, coordinator of the Price Indexes of the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Foundation Getulio Vargas (Ibre / FGV).
“Our preliminary collections (from the FGV Consumer Price Index) indicate that October is already quite salty, inflation higher than September. I would say it will be close to 0.8%. Service inflation is slightly higher, driven by airfare, which is rising more than 40% in October, a shock. This increase can be confirmed by the IPCA-15 “, reported Braz.
In September, families spent 2.28% more on food. According to Pedro Kislanov, manager of the National Price Index System at IBGE, there was a greater spread of food products with price increases, which led to food inflation also higher than usual for the months of September.
“There are two components influencing prices. There is the question of emergency aid, since the resources are directed by the poorest families to buy food, and there is the question of the exchange rate, which makes exports more attractive and ends up restricting the supply of these products. products in the domestic market “, justified Kislanov.
Soy oil increased 27.54%, while rice was 17.98% more expensive. In the year, soybean oil has already accumulated an increase of 51.30%, and rice rose 40.69%. Families also paid more in September for tomatoes, long-life milk and meat.
The information is from the newspaper The State of S. Paulo.