The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has even improved its forecasts for the world economy this year, but estimates released this week by the entity led by Kristalina Georgieva show a recession that remains profound (and unprecedented) due to the impact of the covert pandemic. 19.
In the Autumn Bulletin released on Tuesday, the IMF forecasts a 4.4% drop in the world economy in 2020, an improvement of forecasts known in June, which pointed to a 4.9% fall. Still, they are far more serious than the IMF predicted in April, when the world was experiencing “great confinement” and that pointed to a worldwide recession of 3%.
If the forecasts for the global economy as a whole are now better, the same cannot be said for Portugal. The IMF points to a 10% drop in GDP in Portugal this year, when in June it estimated a less severe 8% recession.
A collection of Business from the IMF estimates for the dozens of countries (or States) it shows shows that Portugal is in the restricted batch of 13 nations with which this year’s drop in GDP is written in double digits.
Macau will have the worst performance (-52.3%), while other countries with a strong dependence on tourism (such as Portugal) also appear in this negative list. On the map above (where only the largest economies are listed) Portugal appears on the same scale as Italy, Spain, Argentina and India.
The Portuguese economy, taking into account the IMF forecasts, will have the third worst performance of the European Union in 2020, with France and Greece appearing very close.
On the map above you can see the IMF forecasts for all countries in the European Union and the main world economies in 2020 and 2021. You can also compare with the estimates produced in April.