Moving average of deaths by Covid-19 in DF registers second consecutive fall

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The moving average of deaths by Covid-19 in the Federal District dropped to 17.3 this Sunday (10/18). It is the second consecutive drop in the indicator.

In comparison with the moving average calculated 15 days ago, there was a decrease of 15.4%, which indicates stability in the number of deaths.

Due to the incubation time of the new coronavirus, the experts’ recommendation to compare the day’s moving average with that of two weeks ago was adopted. Fluctuations in the number of deaths or cases of up to 15% more or less characterize invariability.

Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, the DF has already notified 204,900 infections and 3,545 deaths due to the disease. In the last 24 hours, there were 6 deaths and 653 new infections.

Moving average

Tracking the progress of the Covid-19 pandemic based on absolute death or case data is far from ideal. That’s because they can have very large daily variations, especially delays in records. On weekends, for example, it is common to notice a significant reduction in numbers.

To lessen this effect and produce a more accurate view, the moving average is widely used around the world. The rate represents the sum of the deaths reported in a week divided by seven. The name “mobile” is because it varies according to the total number of deaths in the previous seven days.

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