On the average of the measurements from Poll of polls, Sp goes up by 2.4 percentage points to 16.5 percent. Labor returns to 21.1 percent.
The trend in the opinion polls shows that the Socialist People’s Party is on its way to 17 per cent, while the Labor Party is approaching 20 per cent. If this development continues towards election day in one year, it may be that the Socialist People’s Party will be equal to or larger than the Labor Party.
It will put the Prime Minister’s question in a new light. So far, most have taken it for granted that Labor leader Jonas Gahr Støre is the prime ministerial candidate on the red-green side. The precondition is that the Labor Party is the largest party in the country and that it is clearly larger than the Socialist People’s Party.
The Conservatives passed the Labor Party as the largest party in the opinion polls already in May. Despite the Conservatives losing support in the last three months, the party has retained first place.
More about the poll: The Center Party mostly until October
Since May, the Labor Party has been steadily declining. It is almost unbelievable that it is possible for the largest opposition party to do so poorly in a situation of economic crisis and sky-high unemployment.
Aps’ consolation is that the opinion polls show that the red-green opposition had gained a solid majority in the Storting with over 90 seats. That had secured Støre the prime minister’s stool. Now it is not obvious that it is so safe anymore. An SP in progress has increased the party’s desire to run for Trygve Slagsvold Vedum as prime ministerial candidate. Several county party leaders appeared in Aftenposten on Friday and said that the Center Party must get the prime minister if the party becomes larger than the Labor Party.
The scam Trygve will not comment on that case. He wants to talk about other political issues and not about people and games. The SP leader knows that he is very popular in his own party and among voters in general. The popularity can disappear if he in false modesty says that he is irrelevant as prime minister.
An opinion poll in Dagbladet on Friday shows that a majority of the Norwegian people believe that Trygve Slagsvold Vedum is a better suited prime minister than Jonas Gahr Støre in a government where both the Labor Party and the Socialist People’s Party are included. 47 percent believe that Vedum is best suited, while 43 percent believe that Støre should be prime minister in such a government. Among the red-green voters, 49 per cent answer that Trygve Slagsvold Vedum should become prime minister, while 48 per cent prefer Støre.
The same poll in Dagbladet shows that there is only 1.7 percentage points that separate the parties when it comes to support. The Center Party is measured at 17.8 per cent, while the Labor Party gets 19.5 per cent.
Such measurements give optimism and profit to Sp.
The media will eventually start talking about three prime ministerial candidates, Erna, Jonas and Trygve, if the Social Democrats and the Labor Party become equal in size. It is probably good for the Socialist People’s Party, but hardly good for the Labor Party and the Conservative Party. The two are most interested in keeping alive the prime minister’s duels between Erna and Jonas.
The right is on its way down. The party has remained well over 25 percent since April. In the last two months, the party has reached the 24th century. FRP is not growing. In October, the party has about the same support as it had before the party left the government in January.
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For KrF and the Liberal Party, support is still miserable. Both parties are below the threshold. MDG and Red are stable across the border. MDG gets 4.5 percent and Red 4.6 percent. It would have given the parties 8 seats each.
It is Sp’s progress that gives the red-green opposition a solid advantage on the government side. The transition from the bourgeois side to the red-green parties takes place mainly to Sp.
The Labor Party, the Socialist People’s Party, the MDGs and the Red Party only win marginally with bourgeois voters. Should Sp “crack” or that Erna Solberg and Siv Jensen should succeed in regaining voters that they have lost to Sp, we will see completely different figures in the polls. The possibility of a change of government next year depends on the SP still gaining tens of thousands of bourgeois voters.