USA. Did the polls really fail in 2016? And this year? “Chances of Trump winning in the polling station are considerably below 30%”


Democratic candidate for the November 3 elections in the USA, Joe Biden, continues with a 10% advantage over his Republican rival Donald Trump, who is running for reelection. The aggregated survey is from FiveThirtyEight, a website dedicated to the analysis of opinion polls in several areas, including politics. The portrait is from this Wednesday, October 14, and places Biden with 52.3% in the voting intentions and Trump with 42.1%. Daily projections show that since February 26, when the interval – already favorable to the Democratic candidate – was substantially shorter (3.8%), Biden was able to ‘put on weight’ this advantage. But in 2016 the projections were also favorable to Democrat Hillary Clinton, who, despite having won the popular vote, ended up losing to Trump. What has changed in four years?


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