By Fernando Brito, from Tijolaço – It is not the performance of GDP yet, but as the market considers it a preview of the economy’s performance index, the negative IBC-BR of December (with the help of the revision of the November figure, which also fell to the red) is one more fact to indicate that the signs of economic recovery, so welcomed by the media, were really a chicken flight.
The mainstream media has already started, even before Carnival, the season of revisions below expectations of growth. And that with “pre-coronavirus” numbers.
The external situation, in addition to the epidemic, is dismal. Germany “zeroed” in the GDP for the final quarter – equaling the entire Eurozone – and is expected to turn negative in this initial quarter of 2020. Argentina is at a standstill and China, frozen.
The possibilities for so-called “positive agendas” (positive for the “market”, of course) of tax and administrative reforms do not seem to be promising.
Even the timid signs of job improvement are what could be called “exhaustion of idleness”: of every 18 people who start to declare themselves occupied, 10 are in informal work.