Ibovespa ends the semester with a 17.8% drop, but has had the best quarter since 2003; dollar rises 35.6% in the year

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Falling stocks (Credit: Shutterstock)

SÃO PAULO – The Ibovespa closed a 17.8% drop in a historic semester, marked by the outbreak of the coronavirus, which resulted in no less than six circuit breakers in B3, the highest number of mechanisms triggered in a single year. During the 2008 crisis, the circuit breaker was triggered five times.

The benchmark’s half-yearly drop was also noteworthy as it was the largest since the second half of 2015, when B3’s main stock index collapsed 18.3%.

In the same period, the dollar shot up 35.6%, the largest appreciation of the United States currency against the real since the second half of 2008, when the dollar shot up 60.7%.

According to Bruce Barbosa, an analyst at Nord Research, at the peak of the year, reached on January 24, when the Ibovespa hit 119,593 points, many investors were entering risky assets and had a shock with the pandemic.

“It was not the first pandemic to emerge in Asia, but we were caught on the counter by the degree of contagion at Covid-19,” he says. For him, this generated a very strong drop in expectations, as the country is moving in the direction that the market considers correct, with the approval of the Pension Reform and the forwarding of the Administrative and Tax Reforms, and all optimism was swept away by the circumstances.

“The staff saw the [Produto Interno Bruto] GDP improve and we ended up going back a few steps ”, he explains.

On the other hand, in the second quarter the Stock Exchange rose 31% – the biggest increase since 2003 -, recovering a good part of the losses for the semester, something that Barbosa attributes to an exaggeration in the initial drop. “The 60,000-point exchange did not make any sense with the results of the companies, despite taking a year of valuation from the companies. And nowhere in the world has the stock market dropped 50%, ”he said.

The increase in liquidity provided by the central banks of the world, the hope of a vaccine against coronavirus and the economic reopening of several countries that have undergone quarantines have boosted the Stock Exchange in the last three months.

For the future, Barbosa expects the Stock Exchange to continue as an investment opportunity better than the CDI, currently at its historic low, as he believes that structurally the country’s macroeconomic conditions have changed.

This Tuesday

Today the Ibovespa closed in a fall of 0.71% to 95,055 points with a financial volume of R $ 27.25 billion.

On the radar, the fears surrounding Covid-19 are not over. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, president of the World Health Organization (WHO), said that the pandemic is far from over and that “the worst is yet to come”.

Meanwhile, the commercial dollar rose 0.27% to R $ 5.4387 in the purchase and to R $ 5.44 in the sale. The futures dollar for July, on the other hand, operates at an increase of 1.25% to R $ 5.476 in the after-market.

In the future interest market, the DI for January 2022 fell by a base point of 2.92%, the DI for January 2023 fell three basis points at 4.02% and the DI for January 2025 fell six basis points at 5.68%.

China showed stronger than expected Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI) in the service and manufacturing sector. The industrial indicator reached 50.9 points in June, against the 50.4 points expected by the market and the services indicator stood at 54.4 points. It is worth remembering that the PMI indicates an expansion of economic activity above 50 points and a retraction below 50 points.

The property sales figures in the United States, released on Monday, were also better than expected. Pending property sales rose 44.3% in May, showing once again the strength of the recovery of the American economy.

On the other hand, the Chinese parliament passed on Tuesday the controversial national security law for Hong Kong, the semi-autonomous territory’s press reported, raising fears of a crackdown on any political opposition in the former British colony and with the potential to increase tensions between the US and China.

Here, the National Household Sample Survey (Pnad) Continuous showed that the unemployment rate in the country rose to 12.9% in the quarter ended in May, reaching 12.7 million people, amid the pandemic of the new coronavirus.

The result was below the median of analysts’ estimates heard by Bloomberg, calculated at 13.1%.

In addition to the new coronavirus, Chinese scientists have identified a subtype of influenza virus in pigs that can infect humans and has the potential to generate a new pandemic. The new pathogen is a predominant strain of the influenza virus and derived from H1N1, a group of viruses from which another subtype caused the 2009 flu pandemic, which killed about 250,000 people worldwide.

However, biologists point out that the virus is not yet transmitted from human to human, so it is not an immediate concern.

Political tension

The group known as “Centrão” wants to guarantee more resources for city halls in exchange for supporting the postponement of the elections and bet that President Jair Bolsonaro will support the negotiation, reported the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo.

But that is not the president’s only political concern. According to the newspaper, Operation Anjo, launched on June 18, took some steps to elucidate the ties between Fabrício Queiroz and the Bolsonaro family with the militias in Rio de Janeiro.

The Public Prosecutor’s Office revealed a suspicious meeting between Senator Flavio Bolsonaro’s lawyer, Luis Gustavo Botto, and family members of former Bope captain Adriano Magalhães da Nóbrega, appointed as the head of a militia.

Also participating in this meeting was Queiroz’s wife, Márcia Aguiar, who remains on the run. The goal would be to develop an escape plan for the family of the former aide to Flavio Bolsonaro with the help of Adriano.

Today was also a day of announcement that the emergency aid will have two more installments of R $ 600, contrary to what had been reported by the government in recent days.

Corporate overview

The Ministry of Agriculture reported that China has suspended imports from three meat processing units from Brazil. The move was allegedly motivated by the Chinese government’s concerns about containing a new outbreak of the new coronavirus.

According to the Reuters agency, a unit operated by Marfrig in the city of Várzea Grande (MT) is one of those suspended. In addition, according to information on the Mapa website, a JBS chicken unit in Passo Fundo (RS) was suspended by China last Friday and another by Minuano in Lajeado is also temporarily prevented from exporting to the Chinese.

The companies did not comment on the matter.

Higher highs

Active% ChangePrice R$)
TOTS33.2560223.15
TIMP33.1227314.2
GOAU42.812947.31
QUAL32.5097229
UGPA32.1111118.38

Higher casualties

Active% ChangePrice R$)
IRBR3-11.717511
EMBR3-3.919248.09
ITUB4-3.8897325.45
BBAS3-3.8576632.15
SANB11-3.5456128.02

Petrobras said on Monday evening that it had started the process of selling its entire stake in the Tartaruga field, located in the shallow waters of the Sergipe-Alagoas Basin.

The state-owned company has a 25% stake in the field, of which Maha Energy is the operator, with a 75% stake.

The sale process begins with the opportunity disclosure stage (“teaser”), when the company announces the main information about the asset.

The state-owned company also reported that the four platforms installed in the Búzios field, in the Santos Basin pre-salt, reached new production records on June 27. there were 664 thousand barrels of oil per day (bpd) and 822 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed).

The Búzios field is the largest in deep water in the world.

The record announced on Monday surpasses an earlier mark of the four platforms released on March 11, which was a daily production of 640 thousand barrels and 790 thousand barrels of oil equivalent.

Regarding corporate results, IRB Brasil reported that it closed the first quarter with a net profit of R $ 13.874 million, down 92% in relation to the first three months of 2019.

On Monday night, Ecorodovias posted net income of R $ 103.3 million in the first quarter of 2020, up 23% over the same period last year.

The company’s pro-forma net revenue was R $ 768 million between January and March this year, an increase of 15.6%. The pro forma Ebitda was R $ 530.4 million – a 17.8% jump in the annual comparison.

In the case of Tupy, the result for the first quarter was a net loss of 207.5 million, compared to the profit of R $ 80.442 million seen a year earlier.

The company’s revenue was R $ 1.093 billion, which represents a 14.7% drop in the annual comparison. The company’s adjusted Ebitda was R $ 164.6 million in the first quarter of this year, an increase of 20.2% over the result for the same period last year.

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