BRASILIA – The number of people diagnosed with the new coronavirus in Brazil rose to 2,915 and the total deaths reaches 77, equivalent to 2.6% of the total. The data were released by the Ministry of Cheers this Thursday afternoon. In the last balance of the government, on Wednesday, the total number of infected people reached 2,433, with 57 confirmed deaths.
Look:Special infographic with everything about the coronavirus
São Paulo remains the most affected state, with 58 deaths and 1,052 confirmed cases. Next comes Rio de Janeiro, with 9 deaths and 421 cases. The states of Ceará (3), Pernambuco (3), Amazonas (1), Goiás (1), Santa Catarina (1) and Rio Grande do Sul (1) have also registered deaths.
The folder reported that there are 205 people in wards and 194 people in the ICU by Covid-19 in Brazil, according to data updated at 17:30 this Thursday. There is a map, distributed by Federation unit, with this occupation, which will be part of the ministry’s platform on the disease.
The executive secretary of the Ministry of Health, João Gabbardo, said he believed that the next 30 days of fighting Covid-19 would be “very difficult”. He said that during this period, Brazil will not yet see a reduction in the curve of confirmed cases of the disease.
– The forecast is that we will have 30 very difficult days. We are probably at the critical stage of the pandemic. We are not going to start reducing cases in 30 days. We have a higher estimate to have the reduction of cases – he said.
Share by WhatsApp: click here and access a complete coronavirus guide
The secretary said that it is not possible to make predictions about the total number of cases and deaths caused by the new coronavirus. He said that these numbers will depend on the speed of transmission of the disease and the amount of tests applied.
– Forecasting the number of cases is very difficult to do. There are people saying that we will have 50 thousand cases, I don’t know how many deaths. These simulations are very early. Each of us has a forecast, but they have no chance of advertising as a probability. It will depend on the transmission of the disease and the amount of tests we do. The more tests we do, the greater the number of cases – he commented.
Gabbardo said that when Brazil increases the number of tests, the number of cases will increase, which will not mean changes in the dynamics of the disease. He avoided making projections for the next 30 days and said that the daily increase in the past few days is below what the government expected:
– The forecast was that every three days, we would have twice as many cases. That is, it is even below. Today we had an increase of 20% of the cases in relation to the previous day. Yesterday, it was 11%. On Tuesday, 16%. So, we are falling below the 33% that we imagined we could have daily. The projection for 30 days? You can’t do it.
The ministry’s Health Surveillance secretary, Wanderson de Oliveira, said that the data does not show, however, a slowdown in new cases, because it is too early to draw this type of conclusion.
– There is no deceleration of cases. You can’t do this speculation, because we have a lot of cases to be tested, obviously. And the tests are being carried out according to the arrival of these inputs – he said.
Asked about the fact that Brazil has, after a month of the epidemic, more confirmed cases than Italy in the same period, Gabbardo, said that this does not mean that the situation here will be worse than there.
– This difference, 29 cases (in Italy), 57 cases (in Brazil) is not significant. We started in a way, perhaps, slowly. But Italy then saw an abrupt increase, which I hope not. We have to follow. We have an expectation that we will not have the same proportional number of deaths that Italy has. It is a projection – said Gabbardo.
He stated that, although it is not possible to measure the results of the measures adopted by the government, the behavior of the disease is within the expected parameters.
– The behavior of the disease is within the parameters we expected. We have growth below 33% per day and lethality of around 2.6% without expanding our testing – said Gabbardo, noting that the lethality rate in Brazil is lower than in the world, which is approximately 4%.
In the same vein, Wanderson said that it is still too early to assess the impact of the measures being taken in Brazil to contain the epidemic. This may “flatten the curve”, that is, reduce the rate of new cases, but, according to him, it is necessary to wait some time to analyze it better.
– One thing is the general. I can see that, where he has already implemented isolation measures, he flattened the curve. But that is looking at the past. When I’m during a turn [no Brasil], it is very complex to assess how much this curve has dropped, how much it can be lowered over time, because I do not know, for example, whether this measure in São Paulo will influence Bahia, the states that are far away. Possibly yes, because São Paulo is a reference, a producer of several items. Then, urban mobility decreases due to the lack of inputs throughout Brazil. Of course, it will have an impact. Now what will be the impact, let’s wait a while, we need a few more months to evaluate more accurately – said Wanderson.
Wanderson said that testing more people, thanks to the acquisition and donation of tests, will help overcome the crisis more quickly.
– He goes to the steering wheel, in a city with more than 500 thousand inhabitants, he will collect and we will be able to give more adequate guidance. If you don’t have Covid-19, you’re still working. We are looking for alternatives, solutions so that we can put society on the street as quickly as possible – said Wanderson.
In addition to the increase in testing, Gabbardo said that the folder bought 45 million masks and announced a tender to acquire another 200 million. So far, 9 million masks have been distributed. An e-mail was also created so that people, companies, international organizations and even other countries can get in touch to make donations of inputs, materials and equipment.
The Ministry of Health also launched a WhatsApp channel that will use a robot to provide guidance on the new coronavirus, prevention, forms of contamination, treatment, care protocol for health professionals and false news. The number is 61-99938-0031. Just say hi. You must save the number in the phonebook.
Older people die more
According to the Ministry of Health, a survey based on 391 diagnosed cases and 59 deaths shows that the majority of confirmed records of the disease and deaths are of men who have some type of pre-existing disease.
Of the confirmed cases, 58% are men and 42% are women. Of the total deaths, 68% are men and 32% are women. The folder panel points out that the serious cases reached more people in the 60 to 69 years old range, but there are some cases of children from 1 to 5 years old and from 20 onwards. Deaths were recorded more frequently among patients aged 80 to 89 years, who represent 39% of deaths. Then comes the age group of 70 to 79 years old, with 33.9% of the total deaths.
According to the data, as of this Thursday, 77 people died in the country. The numbers by age group refer to 59 deaths. About 8.5% of deaths were of people aged 90 to 99 years – the same rate between the age group of 60 to 69 years. People aged 30 to 39 accounted for 5.1% of deaths. Those aged 40 to 49 years, 3.4%. Victims aged 50 to 59 represented 1.7%
Ministry technicians point out that the main comorbidity found in patients who died victims of Covid-19 is heart disease. Next comes diabetes.
Gabbardo says that young people, individually, have very little risk for the coronavirus, but the danger lies in the fact that they contaminate the elderly. In the “ideal world”, according to him, the elderly should keep their distance from family and friends. – Someone will say: but there was a death in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro or Brasília of an adult of 24 years or 39 years. Okay, he must have some comorbidity. Probably the flu, some coronavirus was a fact that unbalanced his health and died.
– People under 40 in China, what we saw is that 0.02% of cases can evolve severe cases and deaths. We never said that, nor has the literature shown, that we don’t have cases in young people and even in children. Let’s have it. But proportionally it affects many more people over 60 – added Wanderson.
See the number of confirmed cases by state:
North Region: 126
Northeast Region: 457
Rio Grande do Norte: 19
Southeast Region: 1665
Holy Spirit: 39
State of Minas Gerais: 153
Rio de Janeiro: 421
Sao Paulo: 1052
Midwest Region: 275
Federal District: 200
Mato Grosso do Sul: 25
Mato Grosso: 11
South Region: 392
Santa Catarina: 122
State of Rio Grande do Sul: 168