Some of the main entities in the country’s economic sectors highlight, through studies and technical notes, the losses caused by the interruption of activities due to the quarantine against the coronavirus. All are pessimistic, and point out that unemployment is inevitable in all areas.
The president of the National Confederation of Industry (CNI), Robson Andrade, calls for the resumption of trade and services to avoid an economic evil that is difficult to overcome.
In an interview with the newspaper O Estado de S.Paulo, Andrade said that some activities can resume work as long as care is taken to avoid contamination. “Companies’ financial capital is compromised. Unemployment creates a lack of consumption. This is going to be a chain. Making a home office is possible in the service area, but in commerce and industry it is very difficult ”, he says.
According to him, the CNI will send proposals to the federal government proposing the gradual resumption of activities.
“We have contact with 700 thousand companies that represent 10 million workers. We are trying to calm the environment by the seriousness of the moment, but we have to be responsible to the country, ”said Andrade.
In the same vein, the president of the Federation of Industries of the State of Minas Gerais (Fiemg), Flávio Roscoe, defends “the partial functioning of activities that are fundamental for society”.
A study by Fiemg points out that Minas Gerais may end this year with the loss of 2.02 million formal jobs, considering the almost complete stoppage of productive activities in a period of 30 days, due to the pandemic of the new coronavirus. In the entire country, says the organization, 16.7 million vacancies may be closed.
“Social detachment is an effective measure to prevent the spread of the virus, but it has side effects such as the paralysis of several economic activities, causing sudden shocks of supply and demand in Brazil and Minas Gerais”, analyzes Roscoe.
According to the study, if the stoppage lasts 30 days, the fall in the Brazilian GDP may reach 8.3%.
The National Trade Confederation (CNC) says that losses are already being felt in all sectors. In the first half of March alone, the segment’s revenue volume shrank 16.7% compared to the same period last year – a loss equivalent to R $ 2.2 billion.
Of the three major sectors of the economy, trade in goods, services and tourism (tertiary) has the greatest potential for negative impact. “Companies have no cash to keep up with such a dark situation. The third sector recruits a lot of labor, unlike industry and agriculture, which are already highly mechanized and with artificial intelligence. We are going to be deeply affected ”, evaluates the president of CNC, José Roberto Tadros.
Another study by the National Confederation of Services, published by the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo, shows even more tragic figures. Production restrictions in various economic activities can lead to a loss of more than R $ 320 billion to the Brazilian economy and cause 6.5 million workers to lose their jobs.
If the quarantine lasts 60 to 90 days, according to CNS, the service sector will suffer losses of approximately R $ 117 billion in revenues. Trade will lose almost R $ 80 billion and the manufacturing industry will stop generating revenues of around R $ 66 billion.
The services sector grew 0.6% in January over December 2019, informed the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), but activities that weigh 40% in the Monthly Service Survey, released on Wednesday (25), should directly affected by the economic crisis caused by the new coronavirus pandemic.
The negative impact should appear only in the release of the March Monthly Service Survey, scheduled to be released only on May 12, according to the IBGE calendar, said PMS manager, Rodrigo Lobo.
Data released Wednesday (25) by the startup Truckpad, which unites companies with truck drivers from all over the country, show that since the beginning of the stoppages there has already been a 25% drop in cargo volume.
The closure of street and shopping malls was responsible alone, according to TruckPad, for a reduction of almost 30% in deliveries.
“I think that this percentage of decline should increase next week, when we will have a reflection of a longer period of days in which the consumer population has suffered from movement restrictions”, says Carlos Mira, CEO of TruckPad.
The Brazilian Association of Shopping Centers (Abrasce), which represents 577 establishments in the country, responsible for more than one million jobs, says that it accepts the necessary restrictions to contain the covid-19, but is concerned about the future of stores and services.
“Our biggest concern is to avoid, as much as possible, the spread of the new coronavirus, but at no time do we stop thinking about and discussing measures for the maintenance of millions of jobs and families that dedicate themselves daily to make the shopping center sector a development agent ”, Says entity, in a note.