The fraction of Brazilians who disapproves of the Jair Bolsonaro government is 48.5%. The percentage is higher than that of the group that approves management, which is 47.2%. The data are from a survey released on Sunday (31) by the Paraná Research Institute.
As the margin of error in the survey is two percentage points higher or lower, approval and disapproval are in a technical tie. The data show, however, a reversal of the scenario identified by the institute in December. At the time, the Bolsonaro government was approved by 50.2% of respondents and rejected by 45.3%.
The “victory” of approval in December was the only one detected by Paraná in three similar opinion polls carried out throughout 2020. In the previous two, carried out in May and July, approval was 44.0% and 47.1%, and the failure rate was 51.7% and 48.1%, respectively.
Paraná Pesquisa also asked respondents to rate the government as excellent, good, fair, poor or very bad. And in this indicator, the picture is less positive for the Bolsonaro government than in previous months.
The “great” and “good” ratings dropped from 15.3% and 21.8% to 13.3% and 20.0%, when comparing the December and January surveys. “Regular” went from 24.4% to 25.4%. The “lousy” answer fell from 27.9% to 27.5% – but “bad” jumped from 9.4% to 12.1%, the only change that was left out of the polls’ margin of error.
Paraná made four surveys in 2020 with the opinion of Brazilians about the government, produced in May, July, October and December. Generally speaking, the surveys indicated a greater rejection of Bolsonaro’s work in the first half and a tendency for approval growth towards the end of the year. The first data for 2021 suggests a reversal in the outlook.
Women, young people and more educated are more disapproved of the government
The Paraná Pesquisa survey segmented respondents by sex, age, education, employment status and region of residence. Approval for government work is identified in most groups.
The segments in which the disapproval exceeds the approval beyond the margin of error are women, the electorate from 16 to 24 years old, the group with higher education, those not belonging to the Economically Active Population (PEA) and the residents of the Northeast region. The highest failure rate is that of the youngest, which is 59.2%.
On the opposite hand, the best performance of the Bolsonaro government is that identified among men: 56.0% of the male population interviewed approves the work of the President of the Republic.
The survey was conducted between January 22nd and 26th, through telephone calls. Paraná Polls heard 2,002 voters, spread over 204 municipalities, in all states and in the Federal District. The margin of error is two percentage points and the confidence level is 95%.