The government actually asked for a divorce from the market, the credentials of the market before the government were seriously shaken. The immediate impact may not be as extreme as ‘Joesley Day’, but it will be more lasting ”, says Roberto Attuch, from Ohmresearch edit
By Priscila Yazbek, from Infomoney – Among economists and analysts who believe that the latest news about Petrobras (PETR4; PETR3) represents the divorce of the Bolsonaro government and the market and turbulent periods ahead, and those who believe in an impact more like “Joesley Day”, when the Stock Exchange had a sharp drop, but soon recovered, everyone agrees on one point: Monday (22) will be volatile, bearish on the Stock Exchange and a sharp drop by Petrobras and state-owned stocks, especially electric ones.
On Friday, after the appointment of General Joaquim Silva and Luna to replace Roberto Castello Branco as President of Petrobras, the EWZ, the main Brazilian ETF traded in the American market, which replicates the MSCI Brazil index, fell 3.64% in the after market , trading period after the regular closing of the market.
“Looking at what happened abroad and considering that the EWZ is dollarized, I expect a drop of 2% to 2.5% on the stock market this Monday, with all the state companies suffering a lot, mainly Petrobras and Eletrobras [ELET3] – in addition to a drop of 1% to 1.5% in the dollar ”, says Pedro Lang, head of variable income at Valor Investimentos.
A sign that the fall of the state-owned company should be accentuated is in Petrobras’ ADRs, the receipts for shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange. The shares closed the after market with a fall of 9.55% on Friday night (19), quoted at US $ 9.09.
In B3, the state’s preferred shares (PETR4, without voting rights) had already closed the sixth in a drop of 6.62%, only with Bolsonaro’s speech that something would happen in the coming days, without specifying what it would be. Along with the 7.92% drop in ordinary shares (PETR3, with voting rights), the market value of the state-owned company went from R $ 383 billion on Thursday (18) to R $ 354.8 billion on Friday, a R $ 28.2 billion less.
Luiz Fernando Figueiredo, a partner at Mauá Capital and a former director of the Central Bank, says that the drop seen in the after market should be repeated in the regular trading session on Monday, but points out that the impact should be limited because the discussion, for now, does not it even interfered with fiscal premises.
“It’s just another yellow sign, very bad, no doubt, but it’s not a case of saying that the government took a complete turn. If it were a tax issue it would be another story. The situation of state-owned companies has always been difficult, under Michel Temer’s own government, which was more liberal, things like that happened. The signs are terrible, but having the inspector preserved, it is not something that completely changes the environment ”, says Figueiredo.
Roberto Attuch Jr., founder and CEO of Ohmresearch, already has a more pessimistic view of the scenario that is being drawn. “There are people who are putting on warm cloths and comparing the current situation to ‘Joesley Day’, in the sense of thinking that the stock market will fall a lot on Monday and in a month nobody will think about it. The government actually asked for a divorce from the market, the credentials of the market before the government were seriously shaken. The immediate impact may not be as extreme as ‘Joesley Day’, but it will be more lasting ”, he says.
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