Consolidated public sector accounts recorded primary surplus of R $ 58.375 billion in January, informed the Central Bank on Friday (26). The data includes the accounts of the federal government, states, municipalities and state-owned companies.
The primary surplus is recorded when government tax and contribution revenues are greater than expenditures. The account does not, however, include expenses with the payment of interest on the public debt.
According to the institution, this was the best result for the month of january since the beginning of the historical series of the central bank, in december 2001.
RESULT OF PUBLIC ACCOUNTS
FOR JANUARY MONTHS, IN R $ BILLION
Source: BANCO CENTRAL
According to official data, this was also the first positive result since October last year, that is, in three months.
RESULT OF PUBLIC ACCOUNTS IN 2020
In R $ billion
Source: Central Bank
The improvement in public accounts is related to the collection of taxes, which, although it fell by 1.5% in comparison with January of last year, performed well in comparison with previous years.
In addition, as this year’s budget has not yet been approved, the pace of public spending is also slower than usual at the beginning of the year.
- For this year, the public sector must meet a fiscal gap target (primary deficit) of up to R $ 250.89 billion.
- In the whole of last year, due to the influence of the Covid-19 pandemic, the negative result broke a record, totaling R $ 702.9 billion.
According to the head of the BC Department of Statistics, Fernando Rocha, although the January result was a record for the month, the country’s fiscal situation is still complicated – with rhombs high to historical levels in the calculation in 12 months.
“[Superávit elevado] it is not the path that is expected for the year ”, he added. He reinforced that the fact that the state governments insured the expenses at the beginning of the year, and also the Union, due to the absence of an approved budget, contributed to the good result.
In the case of the states, Rocha noted that even without emergency transfers from the federal government due to the pandemic, which ended last year, there was an increase in regular transfers (tax collection divided by the federal government) and an increase in the collection of state ICMS – the which helped with the registered positive balance.
According to data from the Central Bank, the positive result of public accounts in January is related to the performance of the government, states, municipalities and state-owned companies.
- Last month, the federal government registered a primary surplus of R $ 43.156 billion.
- The states and municipalities presented positive balance of R $ 14.772 billion and state-owned R $ 446 million.
When the interest on the public debt is incorporated into the account – in the concept known in the market as a nominal result, used for international comparison – there was a surplus of R $ 17.928 billion in the public sector accounts in January.
In 12 months to January of this year, however, the result was negative (nominal deficit) at R $ 1.016 trillion, equivalent to 13.67% of GDP – a high value for international standards and emerging economies.
This number is monitored by the credit rating agencies for the definition of the credit rating of the countries, an indicator taken into consideration by investors.
The nominal result of the public sector accounts is impacted by the high primary deficit, the Central Bank’s performance in the exchange rate, and the basic interest of the economy (Selic) set by the institution to contain inflation. Currently, Selic is at 2% per year, at the historic low.
The gross debt of the Brazilian public sector, an indicator that is also carefully monitored by the risk rating agencies, rose again in January.
In December of last year, the debt was 89.2% of GDP (revised amount), totaling R $ 6.61 trillion. In January of this year, reached a new record by advancing to 89.7% of GDP, equivalent to R $ 6.67 trillion, informed the Central Bank.
BRAZILIAN GROSS DEBT
% in relation to GDP
Source: BANCO CENTRAL
This Thursday, the National Treasury estimated that the Brazilian public debt, at almost 90% of GDP, is “well above the average for emerging countries, which is 62% of GDP”. The institution asked for continued adjustment of public accounts.
To this end, he defended the maintenance of the spending ceiling rule, which limits most expenses to the inflation variation of the previous year, and the approval of the emergency PEC – which brings the extension of the emergency aid with counterparts (containment of public expenditures) . The PEC is being processed in the Federal Senate.